Forum Topics LVT LVT End of the road

Pinned straw:

Added 12 months ago

So it finally happened, Livetiles in now in receivership: ASX announcement.

I feel like I'm getting better at this investing stuff. For the first time I've been able to avoid riding a business into the ground. I usually bag-hold until after the receivers are brought in. That's not to say that I didn't lose a lot of money, but at least I'm moving in the right direction.

Here's some notes for myself to remember for the future (not all of these are from LiveTiles):

  • Do not, DO NOT, trust management when they say that things are about to get better. If it looks like they are going to run out of cash, they probably are.
  • A business restructure is bad, but two restructures is a definite sign to get out (if I haven't already)
  • Any attempts to change the way the shares are bought and sold (moving to a new exchange, voluntarily delisting, actively seeking to sell the company in a hurry).


AUROPAL
Added 12 months ago

Wow, the day has finally come where the dumpster fire can no longer raise any more capital to torch. It went on for far longer than I thought possible.

I took a big loss on this one but at least didn't hold into adminstration or some kind of massively diluting debt for equity swap, like I did in the past with Slater & Gordon and Freedom Foods (now Noumi), so maybe I'm finally learning something as well?

I got out when they tried to go private, that was the last straw for me as I didn't want to get stick in a private company. I've continued to watch the death spiral from the sidelines since.

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mikebrisy
Added 12 months ago

$LVT is the epitomy of the dumpster fire, so true @AUROPAL.

Looking back over my RL history, I initiated my position in $LVT in 28/10/2019, added some more in 25/2/2020 and a final tranche in 16/6/2020.

I learned a lot from $LVT. I let management run for a bit, even when the numbers didn't match the rhetoric. But finally, there was a disconnect I couldn't ignore, and I exited 100% on 28/6/21, at a 43% loss, realising my enthusiasm had allowed me to build a position size that the risk-reward didn't justify....never justified.

Taking an almost 50% loss at a SP of $0.155 felt painful at the time, but in hindsight, it was a good call. How could it not be with the SP today at $0.005 and now effectively, $0.000. You can always lose more.

Should I have sold earlier? Probably. In fact, was I reckless in ever buying in the first place,... probably. But overall, I learned a key lesson with $LVT. If management doesn't seem credible, consistent, or driven by the right metrics,.....get out. Don't hesitate. In fact, don't even get in in the first place. Management was the weak link here. I always knew they were overly-promotional, but for some reason I was swayed by the revenue growth, the idea of the product, and the list of customer logos.

I think $LVT has helped to make be a better investor. And so, it was a price worth paying. It was one of my first big mistakes. Vale.

Disc. Not held since 28/6/21

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Strawman
Added 12 months ago

I'll echo that @mikebrisy & @AUROPAL

Some of the trades where I 'locked-in" a 50% or more loss where some of the ones I'm most proud of. Not because of the loss suffered, obviously, but because it usually saved me from much greater losses. And it's always good to overcome things like loss aversion and anchoring.

I often think of the quote from David Einhorn:

“What do you call a stock that’s down 90%? A stock that was down 80% and then got cut in half.”

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thunderhead
Added 12 months ago

I thought I was getting better at this too, until BWX happened last year. I had sold in the 5s previously, but reentered between $1.50 and $2.

My first and only ever position in administration in nearly a decade in this game.

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AbelianGrape
Added 12 months ago

@thunderhead sorry to hear you're in the same boat. When I said "not all of these are from LiveTiles", it was BWX that I was thinking of. It really looked like they had a good business going for a while (BWX that is), but if I remember correctly, it all turned sour with the Go-To skincare purchase.

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thunderhead
Added 12 months ago

Commiserations. With BWX, apart from being too acquisitive, it was (as often is the case) terrible management too - sheer incompetence. Channel stuffing, deep discounting, misguided expansion overseas etc.

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thunderhead
Added 12 months ago

On the plus side, LVT and BTH are among the investments I successfully avoided over the years. Avoiding disasters are as good as the wins on the long side!

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AUROPAL
Added 11 months ago

@PinchOfSalt I could be wrong but I wouldn't put BigTinCan in the same basket as LiveTiles.

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Rocket6
Added 11 months ago

@AUROPAL I am firmly in the corner of @PinchOfSalt here, Bigtincan is a bin fire.

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There are various red flags that stand out right from the outset. Btw, how is it this business is able to get away with not updating the market quarterly?

19bb2953ac66aeb45f2cdb5992faa52bab3a89.png

Excited for them to spruik their efforts for cash flow positivity in the upcoming reporting period.

It will be their acquisition and development costs that continue to blow the balance sheet away.

1a95548b7eed6b62fd45f2f86e16460f99a452.png

Perhaps I am being too critical. Doubt it, though. I would bet my left leg this thing is set for more dilution, which wouldn't be any different to the last decade of its history and the thing still can't make a profit.

44411d5d7f055244e55adeaf7e46f683a7c6ea.png

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mikebrisy
Added 11 months ago

I agree with @Rocket6. The long term cash flow picture below tells the story.

We start with a business in 2019 that is a nice idea, and seems to be growing revenue and logos strongly.

By FY20, with some small acquisitions, it looks like it might be starting to scale, with a positive economic trend. So, it did more acquisitions, but they were larger, and the picture became muddied - will it scale or won't it?

Then in FY22, the acquisitions got really big, but I was already scared off by then.

By FY23, they are a lot bigger but still can't make money at the Operating CF level.

My investing history here was that I took an initial position in 12 June 2020, at $0.83. By 12 May 2021, I was worried about the increase in M&A and no evidence of operating economics. Worried it might turn out to be a cash incinerator, I got out at $0.8183, pleasingly retaining nearly all my capital this time. Phew.

This is another business with a very promotional management team that tried the acquisition route to getting a profitable business.

Is it as bad as $LVT? Maybe. It just doesn't feel like it to me because I didn't lose much in this case. However, it is undoubtedly a top quartile cash incinerator, based on the record to date.

Disc: Not held


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thunderhead
Added 11 months ago

All I can say in response to the excellent commentary here is that there are literally hundreds of better opportunities than a company like BigTinCan for your hard-earned.

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AUROPAL
Added 11 months ago

Thanks for the thorough replies @PinchOfSalt @Rocket6 and @mikebrisy , very enlightening!

Seems I need to take a more critical look at BTH!

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