@Dominator totally agree. After the recent AGM I wrote to DW and made the case that his cherry-picking reporting approach directly drives SP volatility. And uncertain results tend to attract a lower premium ( even though for traders, of which I am for the most part not one, do derive additional option value from volatility).
I used the example where at the AGM they gave July and August revenue and STLY comparisons which led the market to see that:
- Sept was a low month, by its omission and
- The STLY comparisons were so strong because Jul-22 and Aug-22 were demonstrably low ( having previously been unreported)
I encouraged him to issue regular quarterly revenue reports and drop the record months. Fat chance.
David acknowledged and thanked me for my “observations” but there is no way this leopard is changing his spots.
Beyond all this noise, they are on a strong run for FY24, and based on my analysis on track to beat consensus of $95m with a chance they could get close to or even exceed $100m. That would deliver a maiden positive NPAT year, as guided.
Based on the snowballing publications, the product is getting a broader base of indications which is allowing it to continue to grow strongly in the US and ANZ where it is most established and could otherwise be expected to start maturing. FY24 will also be interesting to see if and at what scale they get a contribution from India.
I also follow but do not hold $ARX, $AVH and $IART, and it is clear that $PNV is capturing share of existing and new sales in this expanding category significantly faster than the competition.
Mercifully, over time, as sales continue to grow, the month to month noise (which I estimated to be about +/-$2m) will become progressively less important, and the “cherry pickers discount” will slowly unwind.
As a long term holder, it doesn’t really bother me, and the DW Circus has some unique entertainment value.
But DW didn’t answer my question as to what value the Board places on investor trust in management. One I’d love to put to him again in 2024 when he next comes to a SM meeting.