Forum Topics PNV PNV ASX Announcements

Pinned straw:

Added 5 months ago

Sure enough,.... another "record month".

ASX Announcement

First $A8M sales month and $A9M revenue month

PolyNovo announces record monthly sales of $A8.8m (unaudited) for November 2023.

Highlights:

 The U.S. business grew strongly, with monthly sales of $A6.1m (unaudited), up circa 74% on STLY

 Rest of World had monthly sales of $A2.7m (unaudited), up circa 290% on STLY. There was strong growth in UK/I, ANZ, and the Middle East.

 Total group revenue for the month, including BARDA was $A9.5m (unaudited), up circa 110% on STLY  


My Analysis

With previous results announced for July and August, this has $PNV on track for the year, as far as your can tell with this type of cherry-picking reporting methodology. Strong numbers across the Board.

Disc: Held in RL and SM



Dominator
5 months ago

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This one made me laugh, "Lumpiness is our friend" some great showmanship by DW as always...

Good result for the month but the cherry picking of a single month's results and zero mention of the FY YTD numbers is a bit worrying that October for example wasn't a very good month.

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mikebrisy
5 months ago

@Dominator totally agree. After the recent AGM I wrote to DW and made the case that his cherry-picking reporting approach directly drives SP volatility. And uncertain results tend to attract a lower premium ( even though for traders, of which I am for the most part not one, do derive additional option value from volatility).

I used the example where at the AGM they gave July and August revenue and STLY comparisons which led the market to see that:

  1. Sept was a low month, by its omission and
  2. The STLY comparisons were so strong because Jul-22 and Aug-22 were demonstrably low ( having previously been unreported)


I encouraged him to issue regular quarterly revenue reports and drop the record months. Fat chance.

David acknowledged and thanked me for my “observations” but there is no way this leopard is changing his spots.

Beyond all this noise, they are on a strong run for FY24, and based on my analysis on track to beat consensus of $95m with a chance they could get close to or even exceed $100m. That would deliver a maiden positive NPAT year, as guided.

Based on the snowballing publications, the product is getting a broader base of indications which is allowing it to continue to grow strongly in the US and ANZ where it is most established and could otherwise be expected to start maturing. FY24 will also be interesting to see if and at what scale they get a contribution from India.

I also follow but do not hold $ARX, $AVH and $IART, and it is clear that $PNV is capturing share of existing and new sales in this expanding category significantly faster than the competition.

Mercifully, over time, as sales continue to grow, the month to month noise (which I estimated to be about +/-$2m) will become progressively less important, and the “cherry pickers discount” will slowly unwind.

As a long term holder, it doesn’t really bother me, and the DW Circus has some unique entertainment value.

But DW didn’t answer my question as to what value the Board places on investor trust in management. One I’d love to put to him again in 2024 when he next comes to a SM meeting.

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Dominator
5 months ago

I think a factor in being able to downplay the DW show impact is that he has a lot of skin in the game so his interests should be aligned longer term. If the same thing was going on and he did not have any significant holding I would view the activity very differently... Also helps that the outlook continues to be in the right direction.

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