Wasn't me @NewbieHK - that straw was from @edgescape . I don't have an opinion on this trading halt other than that in my experience trading halts for this sort of thing tend to be called more for bad news than good news, and the longer the trading halt lasts, the worse the news is likely to be. But @mikebrisy makes some valid points too, and the recent positive trading and the high indicative opening price before the trading halt was called does suggest something positive rather than negative if there was any sort of leak, so let's wait and see where we land on this one when they emerge from the trading halt. Disc: I hold NEU here, but not IRL at this point.

Correction @edgescape (thanks Bear for pointing this out)

I agree that there could be other possible scenarios

For instance the rally in the share price in the last few days could mean someone has knowledge that other people don't have. Or at least they can infrer something that hasn't been properly covered in past announcements and hence would warrant a trading halt.

Or as mentioned earlier, the results need additional peer review before making an announcement and therefore need a trading halt to give more time for Neuren to prepare a response.

But we should always prepare ourselves for the worst case outcome.

I'm actually not too worried as I bought during the recent lows. But if it tanks 20%+ which is about $13 then price looks interesting again.

@edgescape - I agree.

It is interesting what you've posted on the historical experience as well as @Jimmy's analysis of historical announcements. You may well be right.

However, I think there are a few considerations that maybe make this one unique. So, I am less swayed by the historical patterns of communication but it makes little difference because the "halt" is now there, and the result will be what it will be.

But here's why I think this one is different.

First, CEO Jon Pilcher is a pretty straight-up guy. It won't be lost on him that there has been some strong price action in the run-up to this milestone. He won't be surprised because he has made certain that investors understand the potential of this milestone. NNZ-2591, if successful, can be transformational.

Because of this, I expect "hot" money to have speculatively moved in ahead of the announcement, on nothing other than taking the bet. With few longer term holders willing to sell ahead of the announcement (after all analyst TPs are $17.50-$22.80), a small increase in demand can have a significant price impact.

So, given the price action of the last 14 days, he probably wanted to be cautious and eliminate the narrative emerging of "there's been a leak". (Here I note that although the price action has been strong, the volumes aren't unusual, and the price moves have also coincided with a more general, market-wide "risk-on" shift.)

My hypothesis for the delay is as follows:

I'm assuming they run the CT using an external CRO, and so once the trial is complete and the results are collated there are potentially several people external to the company who have access to the insights. (I'm guessing here, but that would be common practice.) So perhaps Jon feels that steps are required to manage that risk once the data is in and unblinded.

Now, once they have the unblinded patient datasets, there is a bit of analysis to do. The full analysis takes quite a bit of effort, and so performing a preliminary readout is tricky. Its a partial assessment of something which - even with completed analysis - is uncertain and subject to a lot of statistical nuance (p values, confidence intervals etc).

So, I imagine they are in the tricky position of having committed to investors to give an initial read-out, but then having to arrive at that assessment without doing the complete analysis. Pretty high stakes really. They are trying to make a potentially SP sensitive announcement without doing the full work of the analysis phase of the CT process.

And we have to remember this is only Phase 2. So the efficacy data won't be that great in any event, and its more about 1) Go/No-Go for Phase 3 and 2) defining the Phase 3 end points.

That's why I am unmoved by the delay of a few days, and am still squarely in the camp that this is still a 50:50 or perhaps 30:70 play (win:fail).

Brilliant coverage on what may transpire .

Thanks @mikebrisy @edgescape @NewbieHK and @Bear77 . Your detail and insight is much appreciated.

The run up of SP has been very steady and interesting to watch.

Since the recent low of $10.18 on 26th Oct 23 there has been share price appreciation of 16 of the next 24 trading days to reach SP of $17.14 before the trading halt.

Mike as you mentioned there feels like new money has come for the stock whom may have be positioning for a positive announcement so don't disagree with the 50/50 view on how things may unfold.

Neuren may need to announce something very special to see further short term SP appreciation.

I am leaning on 70/30 move in share price (win:fail) on the view that the Neuren Pharmacuetical narrative is not covered broadly and thus not very well understood.

This comes from the many presentations (as listed below)Jon Pilcher has delivered in 2023 outlining the opportunity that lies ahead.

• 8th Nov 2023,
• 20th Oct 23 Qrt Cashflow,
• 28th Aug 23 Half Year Investor Presentation,
• 4th July 23 Investor Presentation,
• 30th May 23 AGM,
• 14th March 23 Investor Presentation)

In the 14th March 2023 Presentation Jon states that NNZ-2591 presents as a market that is 5x Rett Syndrome.

If there is partly or fully validated in the phase 2 trails there maybe upside share price appreciation to come, especially if it not widely covered or held by funds or indices.

Disc: Held on SM and RL