@Solvetheriddle ... which raises the question, if the product set is good and the customers are good and the SP languishes due to slowing sales momentum, isn't it just a matter of time before $ALC gets taken out to complement another's portfolio, e.g., a "small" US player looking for international expansion. (Not sure who the candidates would be here.)

A bit like $VHT - not at critical scale to be an sttractive, sustainable, listed business, but good tech.

@mikebrisy possible Mike, i cant maintain a thesis on hope of M&A , I hold both ALC and VHT, the difference (to me) was VHT was seeing positive momentum in business, as we have discussed before. a bid could come for ALC at an unattractive price as well--ie below current SP if fundamentals continue to deteriorate

just my view could be wrong

@Solvetheriddle Yes, TBH, I am sitting on a broken thesis with $ALC and scaled back my position a little in May-23 (RL and SM) on falling conviction.

I'm reluctant to exit today, because I believe the SP is now significantly under-valued. Yes, things can always go lower, but I am rolling the dice on 1) positive news flow in the near term or 2) a decent aggregate result at the next regular report or 3) M&A, which while not a reason to hold on its own, has a reasonable chance in the current environment (25-50%).

So it sits at the bottom of my conviction list. I would sell if I need the capital for a better idea, although I have just cashed in $VHT, so the need is not yet imminent.

Opted to cash out rather than vote against VHT @mikebrisy ??

Too right @Solvetheriddle

The South Tees renewal was pretty illuminating. I think it laid bare just how little pricing power ALC actually has and how badly they have read the UK market.

At this point it will take more than a couple of contract wins to turn the tide of sentiment. It just doesn't look that cheap to me given the business has lost so much momentum over the last 12-18 months and it is becoming apparent it is not a category killer app, just one of many with the shortcomings around being a modular offering that you highlighted.

The final nail in the coffin for me was them being caught napping wrt that cap raise. That's business 101 as far as I'm concerned.

Yeah I have reduce my position size (at a loss) by half in the last few months.

I think my view of the business and their strategy has changed since their last capital raise and I've been trying to come to terms with thesis creep and the sunk cost fallacy.

I've updated the graphic as it was set to MM-DD-YYYY by default, just in case your February comment was based on that misleading you.

Ahhhhh. Yes that got me.

That would have been quite a nice proxy in the context of the recent bad news.