Forum Topics NAN NAN H1 FY24 Trading update

Pinned straw:

Added 11 months ago

Pre-results confession, not a pretty sight unfortunately ...

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Mujo
Added 11 months ago

Yes, i don't think tomorrow will be pretty for NAN with that update

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nerdag
Added 11 months ago

Well, with a pre-announcement P/E of circa 100-110x, a 35% drop still leaves it on a P/E of 65-70, which is hardly cheap.

I suspect there is more room to fall.

Still holding for now to digest.

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Rocket6
Added 11 months ago

@nerdag agreed. I commented on here a month or two ago with concerns about NAN's valuation. While I didn't foresee this result, I couldn't wrap my head around the valuation WITH 10-15% growth HoH. In hindsight that sell decision was a good one.

@mikebrisy you will be interested in this too based on our brief previous discussion.

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Strawman
Added 11 months ago

I'll second that @nerdag

Nanosonics is an excellent business in my view, but the market price had baked in a huge amount of growth. A drop in revenue, even a small one, is not going to be received well when you are trading at those multiples.

Yes, a new revenue stream, a reduced development expense and a huge cash pile requires a more nuanced view, but I think the point generally stands.

There will be a point at which the price makes sense. But I've yet to do the work to figure out where that might be.

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actionman
Added 11 months ago

Crickey, I dodged a bullet on this one. I sold out in December after I read the post from @Valueinvestor0909 that CORIS was delayed again, and the AGM notice stated that the Long Term Incentives had dropped the CORIS costs (so the execs could get their bonus?). I thought it odd at the time, so I finally lost conviction and sold after a lot of pain on CORIS.

Thanks @Valueinvestor0909. As Peter Phan says, always watch the incentives, it drives 50% of behaviour.

I just looked at the announcement and they mention an new ERP implementation. Eek. They are notorious money pits. Looks like they taking out all the trash with this announcement and setting the bar low to achieve their incentive targets next FY :-)

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mikebrisy
Added 11 months ago

@Rocket6 quite right. I saw $NAN as overvalued and had trouble seeing $3.00 with growth, as we discussed.

Without growth - well I haven’t digested that yet. Even after today’s correction it is on a very high forward P/E.

I haven’t fully digested the release yet (as I’ve been on my feet the last 2 days intensive teaching.) But with now serious questions on growth of the Trofon business added to questions about what Coris will be, I won’t be tempted even after today’s correction.

Disc. Not held. Still on watchlist

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AUROPAL
Added 11 months ago

Wow I got lucky with the timing on this!

I sold my Nanosonics shares IRL last week as I'm buying a house, so I'm glad I sold before this big drop.

I've held Nanosonics for 6 or so years and did quite well out of it and I still think it's a high quality company, although valuation had gotten crazy which is why it was one of my holdings that I sold to fund the deposit.

But I will be happy to buy back in again in the future if I see an opportunity valuation wise.

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