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Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

Five investment banks have released first reads research on RMD post 2Q24 results overnight

@mikebrisy's writeup very comprehensively and eloquently covers the thoughts already, including the previously hinted mindbending prospect that GLP-1's may actually be a tailwind and not a headwind

Again FWIW here are some snippets from each of the reports:

RBC:

NYSE: RMD | USD 174.97 | Sector Perform | Price Target USD 181.00

Sentiment: Positive

Our view: RMD delivered a good operational result with revenue and gross profit (non-GAAP) coming in 1% and 3% respectively ahead of consensus expectations. Operating expenses came in slightly lower which led to a 6% beat at non-GAAP income from operations. Reported earnings were lower than expectations as the company incurred $64m of restructuring costs and $6m of costs associated with the masks & magnets safety notification. Device revenues in both the Americas and RoW exceeded consensus numbers, while Masks & Accessories in both the Americas and RoW were a slight miss. We expect the stock price to be well supported given the solid sales growth and improvement in gross margins during this quarter

UBS:

Neutral, 12m PT USD $175

Overall we think the result will be interpreted positively given the focus on core gross margin. Reported gross margin fell due to costs associated with the widely discussed masks/magnets recall (label change). We perhaps expect some questions from investors around a miss in masks if devices continue to do well, and wonder to what degree the beat for devices can be linked to the "GLP-1 funnel augmentation" thesis

GS:

Buy, 12m PT AUD $32

Solid +4-6% earnings beat as US device growth normalises and GM recovery continues

2Q revenue growth of +11%, +2% vs. cons, as US device growth recovers after 1Q blip

EBIT/EPS beat +6%/+4% as gross margins improved further in 2Q (+90bps) and SG&A intensity declines once more

No guidance as typical; core debates remain: 1) competitor challenges, including timing/outcome of consent decree; 2) GLP-1 risk; 3) gross margin trajectory

JPM:

Overweight, PT USD $195

Key positives: Gross margin up 90bps sequentially. Device sales the surprise strength. Buyback started this quarter at $50m which is earlier than expected

Key negatives: Mask growth slightly weaker than we had expected. Restructuring costs higher

Expected share price reaction. Mid single digit share price increase

MS:

Overweight, PT AUD $28.60

Top line was a small beat with strength in US devices offsetting weakness in masks. Non-GAAP GP margin + 90bps to 56.9% sequentially (60bps above Street) – improvement in freight and favourable currency offset by higher component cost and neg. mix. Non-GAAP includes adj. of US$64m relating to restructuring charges and A$6m relating to the mask recall, resulting in GAAP-GP of 55.6%. The strength in margins delivered a strong beat on the bottom line with diluted EPS +13% to US$1.88 (+5% Street, -1% MSe)

We were concerned about some downside risk to US device sales growth due to the 2% growth in prev. Q, however, it was a beat (+2% MSe; +3% Street) at 8% growth. International device sales growth also positively surprised at 19% growth

Mask sales growth was a disappointment where we may have overestimated the benefit from the expanded installed base. US mask sales -6% MSe and -2% Cons, at 11% growth. International mask sales -5% MSe and -1% Cons, at 9% growth


DISC: Small position Held in RL & SM

Remorhaz
3 months ago

and for completeness here's Macquarie's which came out during the day

Macquarie:

Outperform, 12m PT $33.40

What's new

Revenue +2.1%/+1.2% vs MRE/VA consensus; NPAT +2.3%/+4.7%

Why it matters

  • 2Q24 a beat vs MRE/VA consensus: Revenue and non-GAAP gross profit/ EBIT/NPAT all ahead of MRE/VA. Compositionally, device revenue was ~3% ahead of MRE/VA, with masks/accessories revenue +1%/-2%
  • Gross margins: +10bps YoY, +90bps QoQ (+60bps/80bps vs MRE/VA) driven by lower freight and increased average selling prices (ASP), partly offset by adverse product mix. Management expect sequential improvement over 2H24, albeit with potential freight headwinds in 4Q24
  • New mask launches: Regulatory and reimbursement approval has been received for a new mask offering. Launch is expected "soon"
  • Restructuring initiatives: US$64.2mn of which US$28.6mn related to employee severance, US$33.2mn related to intangible asset investment write-downs (wind-up of certain business activities) and US$2.4mn from other asset impairments
  • GLP-1 commentary reiterated: Patients on a GLP-1 RA are more likely to initiate PAP therapy, with higher rates of adherence and re-supply. Further, commentary indicated potential for the SURMOUNT-OSA trial to show the benefits of PAP in combination with GLP-1 RA (as opposed to substitution)
  • Opex guidance: For 2H24, SG&A is expected to represent 18-20% of revenue with R&D 6-7% (initial guidance of 20-22% and 7-8%, respectively)
  • Buy-back recommenced: ~US$50mn of stock bought back in 2Q24 (similar values expected over the remainder of FY24)


What now

Outperform. On balance, a better than expected result, with our forecasts implying strong EPS growth over the balance of 2H24. Combined with valuation appeal, RMD remains a preferred sector exposure

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Solvetheriddle
3 months ago

RMD my 2c, the big news covered by Mike was the positive correlation rmd is seeing between the use of weight loss drugs and cpap usage, which could scare the shorts.

note there is an LLY study coming out re OSA and weight loss drugs, 500 people that could blur the water, but RMD using a 529k sample,

i thought it a strong result, all things considered, GM on the mend, first time i can recall + asp with roll through occurring into 4q

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disc held

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