Pinned straw:
Been more than a year since the Cemex update
I'm guessing the licence agreement has probably fallen through.
As an FYI, CG had a valuation of $8 for Leilac alone from the 8-mar-23 note
On a more positive note, PLS appears to be progressing with the Midstream processing
However we still do not have details on the royalty payable to Calix. But since Lithium spot prices have fallen, the contribution won't be much.
Also if we strip out a large part of Leilac valuation and 100% of the batteries (since there has been little progress here), then the valuation by @Bradbury is probably on the money. (10.51-8.50-0.44=1.57)
Another interesting bit of info - if you do a search on carbon capture cement you will find lots of other companies doing their own implementations.
Bradbury
@edgescape I arrived at my valuation using a very similar line of thinking.
Using my base case as a guide most of the future revenues I have assumed up until FY29 are from the Pilbara JV.
Base Case
No revenue from batteries, zesty or industrial capture.
The heirloom is a bit of a wildcard given their aspirational 2030 targets, but with only a 1000T/a plant online to date and the 1MT/a is in very early days of approval stages it’s hard to see a path to 1B tons by 2030.
LEILAC itself has a reasonable pipeline of projects but the timeframes are very slow given the capex required by the cement producers and all of these will be awaiting results of LEILAC 2. I don’t think the CEMEX deal is dead yet, but likely on hold waiting for the clear technology winner.
Looking at news in the sector I think the biggest competitor long term will be from alternative materials / processes rather than a capture process .
Unfortunately I haven’t acted on my valuation yet as I was holding to wait for further updates and have taken a fair hit from the current market downtrend.