C79 - Valuation

Forum Topics C79 C79 Valuation

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

I still can’t value this. I really have no idea where to start.

But.

a lot of people clearly saw value the last year. A large cap raise has them well funded and was priced $6.50 a share. Since that shares have soared roughly 27% up and back again. So if we make the assumption that far value is near, or at $6.50.

Others on this have commented that the earnings potential of this is bigger than they can comprehend, sentiment I agree with. Other key points have been at execution risk of deploying more units to meet the TAM they have outlined.

My view on this will be along those lines, how well can they execute, and how many units do they roll out annually moving forward? Additionally, how much perfection on those two assumptions are currently cooked into the share price.

I am tempted IRL to use $6.50 as a floor price of value, and make a small investment. With my thesis being based around those 2 points. I will also be keeping a keen eye on the mining cycles to see if that has an affect.

Solvetheriddle

3 months ago

@TycoonTerry the assumptions you outline are on the right track. Obviously, current metrics look extremely expensive. i tried a DCF given some of mgt comments on ROI etc but gave up when the 2030's assumptions needed to be made. you can work on some scenario analysis that are always helpful. as Zoolander says C79, it really hot right now was my conclusion

jcmleng

3 months ago

@edgescape, fully agree. Also missed out, as I was looking at ~$6.00 as my top-up point given the consolidation in that area before the run up to $8.70, plus it is closer to the 50% retracement level. A bit half hearted as C79 is fully allocated in my portfolio, wanted to add just that little bit more ...!

This email alert sums up my thoughts concisely. With such a massive global deployment in hostile environments, it was always a matter of time before deployment issues are encountered. The market hammered the price for real-world-shit happens deployment realities which will be learnt and risk mitigated in the still long deployment of machines ahead ...

Discl: Held IRL and in SM

edgescape

3 months ago

Well I know one thing for sure...

I loved how this got pushed to 6.11 for one very short moment in the morning a few days back only to come back up at 6.70

Looks like someone tried to trigger some stop losses and then quickly snapped up some loose shares. On the face it seems the seller finished offloading and suddenly buyers stepped in.

Or another way is the seller changed their mind and bought back the shares on offer.

Was watching during that time but did not pull the trigger. 6.11 did seem like a bargain at that time.

Chrysos Corporation Limited