Forum Topics Miners
Metis
Added 10 months ago

Got an invite off my Airbnb host to the RIU explores conference in Fremantle this week. Mining is so far out of my wheel house but just going for a sticky beak/free food (can’t take the student out of me yet- even if it is over 15 years ago). Any of the companies below that peak anyone’s interest that I should listen too?

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Shapeshifter
Added 10 months ago

There's a lot of them!

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Bear77
Added 10 months ago

De Grey Mining (DEG) could be interesting @Metis - they are a gold explorer and project developer that are not in production yet, but they have found a LOT of gold, hence their market cap is already over $2 Billion!!

Perenti Drilling (PRN) could also be interesting - they're a "Picks and Shovels" play on mining - used to be called Ausdrill.

IGO are in a world of pain with their main two commodities - Nickel and Lithium being in a major slump - so I'd love to be there to hear how they put a positive spin on their situation.

Gold Road Resources (GOR) are interesting, because they are the passive partners in a WA gold mine (Gruyere) that is operated by another company (Gold Fields Limited - formerly known as "The Gold Fields of South Africa" - headquartered in South Africa) and that company has so far shown little interest in taking over GOR, so where does GOR see their own future heading from here?

Kin Mining (KIN) is also interesting - coz they just sold their best assets to Genesis Minerals (GMD) so they are now cashed up and own some GMD shares, but what are they going to be spending their cash on in the near to mid term?

Red 5 (RED) are a gold producer with a m/cap of over $1 Billion, who have just announced a merger with Silver Lake Resources (SLR) who have a similar market cap, so not sure why RED 5 are spruiking themselves at a conference like this, unless they're trying to get someone like Genesis Minerals (GMD) to come over the top and make a better offer.

Any nickel miners could be interesting, in the same way it's interesting to watch a slow motion train derailment on TV, or Airplane Crash investigation shows. They either need to mothball their mines and wait out the slump or get taken over by someone with plenty of cash and patience. Those with bugger all cash and no income coming in are at high risk of going broke soon.

Plenty more that I'd be interested in, mostly smaller gold project developers, but I won't go on, as I don't think too many others share my interest in these companies.

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Metis
Added 10 months ago

Thanks @Bear77, that gives me something to do. Most of those have 10 min presentation slots that I’ll try to get too in the next couple of days.

If you have any specific questions for a small gold developer, I can always ask them by proxy. They are literally all sitting at their booths ready to pounce and spruik… wearing a big lanyard with my name and capitals INVESTOR plastered on it probably does make me a bit of a target.

With my background. Being around a conference like this literally makes me feel like a first year medical student again at an anaesthetic conference… absolutely no idea but free coffee and booze. But it has made me realise I’d really enjoy a medtech equivalent.

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Bear77
Added 10 months ago

Good stuff @Metis - let me know if you hear anything interesting from any of those I mentioned. I've just corrected my earlier post - AngloGold Ashanti doesn't own the majority of Gruyere, they own 70% of Tropicana, a different mine, and the other 30% of Tropicana is owned by Regis (RRL), who bought it from IGO who probably wish they hadn't sold it now, although they did get a good price at the time. Gruyere is a 50:50 JV between Gold Road (GOR), who are presenting at the RIU conference, and South African gold miner Gold Fields Ltd., however Gold Fields are the mine operators, and Gold Road are the silent partners, or non-operating partners. Gold Road (GOR) have used some of their cash to buy 19.99% of De Grey Mining (DEG) who are that $2.2 Billion gold explorer/developer I mentioned, so it looked for a while like Gold Road might try to take DEG over, but DEG are now bigger than GOR (Gold Road) whose m/cap is around $1.6 Billion, so it would be some sort of merger I guess rather than an acquisition of DEG by GOR, if it was to ever happen. As far as specific questions go, I can't think of any right now, but interested in the vibe, as in who sounds genuinely excited by their own prospects rather than just going through the motions. My main interest (in relation to mining) is in the gold sector personally. I have to agree with @Shapeshifter - there are a LOT of names on that list, including a dozen or so that I'd never heard of before.

I know Euroz (now Euroz Hartleys) used to run an annual mining conference over on Rottnest Island there around this time every year - I wonder if this one has replaced that - they would certainly get a lot more participating companies by holding it in Fremantle rather than over on Rottnest. Incidentally, I'll be driving past Fremantle on Thursday arvo on my way South to visit family (in the SW of WA). Flying back to Adelaide next Monday - so I won't be posting anything here over the weekend. Enjoy the conference @Metis ! I'll have to get along to one of those one day. I've always wanted to go to "Diggers & Dealers" in Kalgoorlie, but have never gotten around to it.

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Rocket6
Added 10 months ago

@Metis for a different swing on things, I am looking forward to hearing Talga's presentation. They have spent years building a graphite extraction and more importantly anode supply in Europe -- which will make them the only EU-based anode option ex China. They are starting to reach the pointy end of things and I think the risk reward proposition is very appealing. I would argue they aren't so much a mining company (not saying their graphite supply isn't important, it definitely is) but their anode IP is their secret sauce. It takes a VERY long time to establish anode facilities and all that is involved with it, so there is also a time moat at play here -- provided there continues to be ongoing appetite to acquire anode outside China.

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Metis
Added 9 months ago

Well this was way out of my comfort zone and it took a bit to go up to people and talk about things that I essentially know nothing about, Thanks @Bear77 for giving me an in with discussion material and I hope some of this may be useful. Was just interesting to put my thoughts down really. I really liked how once I got chatting, you got a bit of a feel for the people working and running the company. I did develop a little bit of stoke for some companies though and made me realise how easy it is to jump on the bandwagon of something I essentially know nothing about. Really was a reminder to stay in my own lane, and over this coming year to cull my investments quite dramatically so this is the case.

De Grey Mining: 

  • They are planning on building their own mine, so dare say capital raises/debt is in the future. Gold road resources seemed very close to them with their geo employers almost being back and forth from each others booth and very friendly.
  • They are planning on spending 60million of their cash on gold exploration around the main Hemi deposit. I got the feeling this was to hopefully pump the share price more if they need to capital raise. Construction of their mine is from 2024-2026. However there are still processes involved with environmental clearance etc. So this has a long time to play out. Walked away feeling like I didn’t want to touch it.

Gold road resources: 

  • Had a chat to a bloke called Kyle Prentice,one of their geologists with greater than 10 years experience.  He bristled slightly when I said they were silent partners with South African mining company (don’t know what that means). 
  • When it came to De Grey he was pretty clear that company wanted to stay less than 20% invested. 
  • Felt that they were uniquely poised in a cash strapped environment to explore in their QLD and northern WA fields and this is going to be where their value comes from. 


Kin Mining: (talked with Rowan Johnston the executive chairman, also on the board of PNX as well) Interesting as there was an unsolicited offer from Kin mining in regards to a partnership a couple of hours prior to our chat.  He said he couldn’t talk about it other than PNX has some attractive assets that could be leveraged.

  • Kept talking about how the value is quite attractive, Have close to 70 million cash + 22 million (approx) shares in Genesis minerals ($1.52) from the sale of 610koz in a similar place to their current 0.9Moz of gold. He then used MC or EV/ ounces for in ground cost of gold and compared it to the sale they just made to emphasise that he thinks they are worth more. I got a bit lost here I’ll admit. Seems like crudely their gold is valued at 80 dollars per ounce. They sold the 610koz to Genesis for about 60 dollars per ounce. So I think he was trying to say that with the cash + gold deposits they should be valued at greater than the current 68 million market cap. But I could be wrong here. 
  • So the recurring theme was that there is no money around for investment so cash is king and having that cash right now puts them in a pretty good position. He thinks the companies experience allows for more assets to be found and sold. 
  • I asked him if he ever wanted to build a mine. Said he had no interest, wants Kin to be more of a brokering company that buys and sells assets. With a 3 pronged approach: 
  • M+A 
  • Exploring their Volcanogenic massive sullied ore deposit VHMS. My knowledge of this is a quick wiki, lots of different types of metals that is the basis for the deep sea mining. However most companies search on land. (Mainly copper-zinc, with quite the list of others). 
  • Gold exploration. 
  • Forgot to ask him which they will focus on the most. 
  • Of everyone I liked talking to him the most.


AX8: The reason i was there was an investor in this company (accelerate) was the owner of the airbnb i was staying at and got me into the conference free so felt the need to have a chat with them. Portfolio in Pilbara of lithium, gold and manganese. 

  • Talked with Kevin Joyce geologist who they have in charge of the drilling. It was just refreshing talking to him. He basically said if we drill and don’t find anything we are done, if we do well then the Market cap of 15 million will look small. 



The whole thing just gave me a bit of a sense of what WA is about and the hit and miss of it all and that having the right people in charge is huge. Lot of snake oil for sale


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Bear77
Added 9 months ago

Some excellent insights there thanks @Metis - especially in relation to KIN and AX8 - I concur with your gut reaction to DEG - they own a lot of gold that is all in the ground but that is already in their share price and then some. And there will be no cashflow for some years yet. Having the right people is definitely the key - and large cash balances; When you have a few billion dollars - like PLS (Pilbara Minerals) do - of net cash - AND you are already a producer - as PLS are (of Lithium unfortunately - spodumene and tantalite concentrates) - then you ain't going broke any time soon unless you make some really bad capital allocation decisions - and that gets right back to having "the right people", as you said.

Smaller companies - like KIN (Kin Mining) - don't need billions - 70 or 80 million and some shares in one or more other companies will do just fine, in terms of giving them plenty of time to find more gold, or copper, or something else. KIN have a decent track record of executing on that 3-pronged approach too - however KIN's 10-year chart reminds me that a company like that (a succesful explorer with no intention to become a producer) is better traded - than held as a longer term investment - because overall they seem to have burned through more cash than they've generated through asset sales, over time; So they're more one to buy at or near their lows and sell whenever their share price doubles, which it seems to do every two or three years:

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But not really a buy and hold...

Thanks again for sharing that @Metis - Much appreciated.

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BkrDzn
Added 9 months ago

I often find these presentations of more value at such conferences than working out which junior mining shitco may one day may become a senior mining shitco.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEkpI1p8zL4&ab_channel=VerticalEvents%26RIUConferences


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