Forum Topics SGI SGI Stealth H1 Results

Pinned straw:

Last edited 3 months ago

Being my largest position on SM and RL (outside Bitcoin) sharing some thoughts on Stealth Group upcoming H1 and for the full year.

Overall to keep the thesis in check looking for positive momentum in respect to

  • Revenue, 10%+ growth
  • Growth in gross profit from 29.3%,
  • EBITDA expansion 5% or higher,
  • NPAT over 1%
  • Inventory held looking for this to further reduce to 13.0% or lower as a % of revenue
  • From a cost of doing business (CODB) similarly looking for this remain or fall beneath 24.3% as a % of revenue
  • Free Cash flow growth of 10% to 6.6million or higher
  • Debt to be reduced from 7.2m paving the way for a
  • Dividend to be paid in H2 , 20% of H2 FCF or 0.65c


What to watch :

  • Acquisition, which may be needed to propel revenues to the 2025 target of 200m . If announced looking to be purchased for 2x EBITDA .

Operationally, will be keen to see the continued positive trend in

  • daily transaction volume ,
  • average sales per order
  • average sales per employee
  • private label sales growth to 2.5% or higher of total revenue
  • update on the price reset process and check in re any loss of customer


Specifically these results would be strong pass for the H1

  • Revenue 59m, 12% up on LY
  • Gross Profit Margin 31% = 18.3m
  • EBITDA 6% = 3.54m
  • NPAT - 1.5% = 885k
  • Debt to be reduced from 7.2m
  • Confirming a dividend to be paid in H2


Similarly strong results for the full year 2024 would look as follows :

  • Revenue 125m
  • Gross Profit 32% = 40million
  • EBITDA 6% = 7.5m
  • NPAT 1.5% = 1.875m
  • Dividend 30% of H2 FCF 990k or 0.98c per share
  • Debt below 5 million
  • Shares on Issue 103.5m


Any insight or thoughts would be appreciated



DrPete
3 months ago

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UlladullaDave
3 months ago

This probably should have been lodged with the ASX before it was presented at Sharecafe. Price sensitive announcement etc. Looks good though. Nice to see a that operating leverage starting to flex.

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DrPete
3 months ago

I'm not sure how much is left for the upcoming H1 results release after today's Sharecafe webinar. Mike presented a pretty full set of H1 results.

My quick thoughts:

  1. I missed the first part of the presentation, but from other updates on SM doesn't feel like I missed a lot of detail.
  2. Agree with @mikebrisy that the main feature for me was the consistency in message and progress. No big surprises or disappointments, just steady progress and most stats in line with expectations.
  3. Main disappointment for me was essentially static NPAT.
  4. On the other hand FCF was stronger than expected. I assume most of the discrepancy between NPAT and FCF is that depreciation and amortisation was a lot larger than capex. That difference can't last forever. Capex was reasonably consistent so I assume that is a good sign that NPAT will soon lift.
  5. If (big IF) FCF is matched in H2, then dividend could be meaty. Mike has previously suggested a 30% payout, which would be about $700k, or roughly 3% half-year (6% annualised) dividend fully franked.

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DrPete
3 months ago

@wtsimis thanks for detailing your thoughts in prep for H1 Stealth results. It's one of my big lessons from @Strawman to write down expectations to hold myself and the company accountable.

For Stealth H1, I'm broadly in line with your expectations. But a couple of points stand out for me.

  1. At the full year FY23 results meeting last year, Mike flagged that H1FY24 would be worse than H2FY24. He indicated some headwinds in the form of wages and COGS inflation, lagged matching price increases, store closures. So I think it's wise to not to expect a perfectly linear improvement across the year.
  2. I don't think we can expect $6m+ in FCF. Last year was an outlier in FCF because of favourable movements in inventory and working capital. I think FCF will fall from last year. I'm hoping for around 1 to 1.5% NPAT, and FCF a little higher than NPAT.
  3. And with lower FCF, my expectations for dividend are lower than yours. With revenue maybe $65m in H2, FCF at least 1.5%, 30% payout, my minimum expectations are $0.003 per share, about 1.5% yield (3% annualised) before franking credits. And of course that's after H2, so not expecting any significant dividend announcement in the coming update.


Curious that Mike is holding the Sharecafe webinar BEFORE results announcement. I'll try to join but I suspect we'll only get teaser updates.

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mikebrisy
3 months ago

@wtsimis ... yes, thanks and @DrPete I agree, very odd to do a public outing just before results.

I expect he'll play a straight bat and just offer a company profile. I think the format is 10 minutes present and 5 minutes Q&A, so easy to bat away any questions trying to get at guidance.

That's said, it will be interesting to hear the language he uses about the $60m revenue opportunity that is in their parnter network but which doesn't flow through $SGI. For me, that's the short term sugar hit (high return at minimal effort).

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wtsimis
3 months ago

Thanks @DrPete appreciate your insight into the FCF and @mikebrisy .

Based on the call at 1230pm i was thinking results may be released this morning.

Will be keen to see the language used re sales and margins.

Looking through Wesfarmers results yesterday and their Industrial and Safety division led by Blackwoods for a comparative for Stealth, there was reasonable revenue growth or 3.2% to $1,009m and margin expansion from 4.8% to 4.9% which saw earnings grow to 49m. A specific all out re strength in the "mining, utilities, manufacturing and government sectors".



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mikebrisy
3 months ago

Just heard Mike say:

  • "We are well positioned to continue our hockey stick growth"
  • Referred to the $60m opportunity from 3 suppliers accessible by FY25 (I note this was previously 5)
  • Continue to progress on paying down debt
  • All our indicators are heading in the right direction
  • On profitability "we still have some work to do"
  • Reiterated the attractive economics of the hire business, emphasising its an "adjacency" (i.e., doesn't cannibalaise sales)
  • Our second half is typically stronger 55-58% in H2
  • Excited about efficiency opportunities ... we continue to pick up 200bps on CODB ... now at 24% aiming to get below 20% (Consistent with earlier messages)
  • Competition - Blackwoods 4-4.5% market share at T/O of $2-$2.5bn - reiterating fragemented market structure
  • "Having lots of fuun"


His entire demeanour was confident and measured and, importantly, very consistent with what he's said before.

Nothing to indicate the next report will be anything but positve. Although note the point from @DrPete that H2>H1.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

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wtsimis
3 months ago

Mike just presented on share cafe and very solid update.

First half sales rose to 56.5m and aiming for a FY rev 125m

Gross profit 16.6m or 29.38%

Earnings 1.4m up 70%

EPS .45c up 49%

FCF 2.4m for the half

Net debt 5.8m of which 1 m is fixed and will be paid of by June 30th.

Re-itereated dividend but will outline at half year.

On track for 2025 sales of 200m and now aiming for 300m by 2028.

Many opportunities to move into inc rental division with 68% gross profit and 25% net profit

Costs for the half were down another 200 bp which is impressive. At 24% COBD aiming to reach 20%

Look forward to the half year official release

Disc ; Held on SM RL


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jayjayjayjay
3 months ago

Was anything of interest said in the webiner?share price movement suggests something was slipped

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wtsimis
3 months ago

Hi @jayjayjayjay no nothing new in respect to what Mike had previously covered and as @mikebrisy stated the strength of the presentation was the consistency.

My feeling is Stealth is not well covered to provide support, so expectations were low or non existent heading into the H1 even though Mike for past 18 months has remained clear, focused and delivered (on the whole) on opportunities .

When looking at the share price response we need to put some perspective.

Based on H1 results and what is likely to transpire in H2 Stealth @ 20c and 20m Market cap Stealth would be trading on a FCF basis of just over 3x .

This is very low.

Add to this widening margins and reduced debt that IS being delivered and new channels of revenue we should see Stealth Group hit the radar of many more individual and possible some analysts.

Add to this a chunky dividend 6% and can see more upside to occur with SP.

Over the past month managed to add to already an overweight position at prices 18-20c.

In respect to the upcoming H1 results i will be looking for more detail on

  1. How 200bp in CODB has been gained and the actions that twill allow allow this to fall below 20%.
  2. Additionally more detail on the drive for the 60m with suppliers in revenue and the timeline on how this is likely to play our ie 20% in H2 2024 =, 80% in 2025.
  3. Clarity / Confirmation on the dividend ie 30% of FCF. Can see this be nice dividend over next 3yrs plus.
  4. Any acquisitions on the radar (this was mentioned today by Mike so feel there is something brewing)


Happy Holder and want to call out @DrPete for him identifying Stealth.

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