Pinned straw:
Culper Research Report
For completeness on today's coverage, here is the link to the Cupler Research Report on Acadia Pharmaceuticals, which I've linked to their website.
These report are usually pretty scarey and convincing, so if you're not used to reading short reports, brace yourself.
The way I think about it, is that if the short thesis is true, then DAYBUE will struggle to meet the lower bound of guidancefor Q4 (Oct-Dec 2023).
However, we know that on 9th Jan, $ACAD reiterated guidance. Having been put on the spot, what $ACAD say will be very important. Particularly the next lot of forward guidance offered.
I'm happy to sit it out and hear what they say.
I thought I'd close out, what has been an eventful week, with a little analysis of Culper Research's track record.
In the table below, I've listed the short reports on the Culper website, the SP on the trading day close before the report publication, and yesterday's close.
The % Delta is where the SP is at yesterday's close compared with the "undisturbed" SP.
Of the 5 stock reported, 2 are still below the pre-publication SP, by an average of about -5.5% or -14%, depending on whether you take the first or second short report for $RUM.
However, three are up 16%, 53% and 243%!
It's not a meaningful sample to do stats on. But the track record is patchy at best. If there is any bias, its towards outperformance months down the track
Track record is probably comparable with many equity analysts. Enough said.
Happy Weekend All.
$NEU Respond to Short Report.
Just out. Here's the full text.
A placeholder IMO. Nothing more they can say, as they have no insight into how $ACAD reports.
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Comment on research report Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX: NEU) advises that on 15 February 2024 in the US, a report on Neuren’s partner Acadia Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ACAD) was published by Culper Research, which disclosed that they hold a short position on Acadia.
Neuren notes the following:
• There are numerous analyst research reports published on Acadia and on Neuren, many incorporating surveys of US physicians, that present a different view to Culper.
• In its J.P. Morgan Conference presentation on 9 January 2024, Acadia reiterated guidance for net sales of DAYBUE in Q4 2023 of US$80 million to $87.5 million. Net sales of US$67 million and US$23 million were reported for Q3 2023 and Q2 2023 respectively.
• In that presentation, Acadia updated the data on persistence of DAYBUE treatment, with 76% remaining on therapy after 6 months based on confirmed discontinuations, or 68% based on confirmed discontinuations and patients who were 60 days past their scheduled refill.
• The after-hours ACAD share price on 15 February 2024 Eastern Time was up 1.19%.
• Acadia’s Q4 earnings announcement is scheduled for 27 February 2024 Eastern Time.
About Neuren
Neuren is developing new drug therapies to treat multiple serious neurological disorders that emerge in early childhood and have no or limited approved treatment options. Recognising the urgent unmet need, all programs have been granted “orphan drug” designation in the United States. Orphan drug designation provides incentives to encourage development of therapies for rare and serious diseases. DAYBUE™ (trofinetide) is approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of Rett syndrome in adult and pediatric patients two years of age and older. Neuren has granted an exclusive worldwide licence to Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. for the development and commercialisation of trofinetide. Neuren’s second drug candidate, NNZ-2591, is in Phase 2 development for each of Phelan-McDermid syndrome, Angelman syndrome, Pitt Hopkins syndrome and Prader-Willi syndrome.
Contact: Jon Pilcher, CEO: jpilcher@neurenpharma.com; +61 438 422 271 ASX Listing Rules information
This announcement was authorized to be given to the ASX by the CEO & Managing Director of Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited, Suite 201, 697 Burke Road, Camberwell, VIC 3124 Forward-looking Statements This announcement contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Such statements involve known and unknown risks and important factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Neuren to be materially different from the statements in this announcement.
$NEU into a Trading Pause. Presumably, they want time to issue a response to the Short Report.