Forum Topics AHL AHL Business Model/Strategy

Pinned straw:

Last edited 10 months ago

With the thought of NextDC still fresh on my mind

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Not sure if "heat transfer" products would solve the cooling issue from DCs but one hopes that this could be a potential application.

Apart from that a few other "tidbits" I found since having this on my watchlist for 6 months but no time to write about it yet

Apologies for being too brief.and cryptic But worth spending your time understanding this company.

Hopefully I've piqued some interest, but don't mind if you give this straw a pass.

Not held but still thinking.

RobW
Added 9 months ago

Hi Edgescape

It is never wise to invest in a business simply based on who has joined the Company, but I was a longterm holder of Bapcor. I would regard Darryl Abotomey as the 'King of Leverage'. He leveraged every aspect of Bapcor's business and in so doing, removed the investment tag of an unattractive high inventory, low margin Retail Auto Parts entity. Strategic aspiration and bonded execution were ever present in Bapcor's Financial Reporting, this spanning their market footprint, their Culture, the Supplier Network, Strategic Partnerships, working capital optimization, tailoring Expenses to drive Sector beating profitability. and of course, all the while managing the macro environment / threat of imports etc etc.

Unfortunately, he failed with his attempts to leverage the Bapcor Board despite his incredible acumen towards delivering this success. I did hear that he left without as much as a golden handshake.

Rob's view on this is you can look at the Prospectus, you can interrogate the numbers, their markets, their competitors and within 2 to 3 yrs, what you see today will essentially be irrelevant. His personal network and knowledge will deliver success hard to imagine at this early stage. Hence my comment, Buy and lock away in the bottom drawer for 3 to 5 years.

On second thoughts, I may just do that.

RobW

PS I am sure there are others on Strawman that were part of Bapcor's journey some 10 years ago. Comments please ?

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edgescape
Added 9 months ago

@RobW

If Abotomey was staying as CEO then I would have the same view as yourself. However Adrad is getting someone from Quickstep Holdings which hasn't had stellar performance and he was in the role as COO for only 2 years.

Another question is whether the new guy will listen to the wise words of the sage and make a smooth transition. I hope that will happen despite the average CV.

Also in the 2 years since listing, PWH has powered ahead and diversified away from auto and motorsports and established itself as a player in the defence, aerospace and industrials (see the PWH half year). Meanwhile, Adrad is still getting the Thailand business up and running even after 2 years and we haven't seen any revenue come from this yet. So that competitors list is already irrelevant.

It will be quite a bet on the small guy (Adrad) versus the big guy (PWH) that has now made its presence known and constructed its beachead. The phrase "bigger gets bigger" rings true here. And as they say "actions speak louder than words"

In summary, although Abotomey has laid the foundation well in the last 6mths, I think Adrad still has lots of catching up to do and I hope it doesn't become another Quickstep..

Not trying to be negative but outlining some execution risks here.

But I do see your (or should I say everyone's) point of backing the little guy for big returns here.

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RobW
Added 10 months ago

Just another consideration. Very low 'on market' liquidity ( that's current). Could perform well with only 80 m shares on issue, scope to expand in a 'specialist' field, profitable and paying a small dividend, but would have to be a 'buy' and lock in the bottom drawer for 3 to 5 years.Well, my take anyhow.

RobW

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edgescape
Added 10 months ago

@RobW Not sure after checking the prospectus again.

So the question becomes, an I willing to part my hard earned in a investment where competitive advantage is hard to determine at any price?

As examples

  • IPD Group's competitive advantage has been their distributor and service network which has high barriers to entry and a good comparison being very illiquid after listing.
  • Clarity Pharmaceuticals competitive advantage has been the patent to SAR-BisPSMA (although questions still remain on this being a success)


Anyway I digress and I'm not trying to cross promote as everyone knows here I hold both.

The prospectus contains a list of competitors which is 2 years old but in that time I believe lots have happened in the competitive landscape after doing more digging into the list.

I've added a straw on competitors which I've left there so others can do their research and make up their own mind.


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BoredSaint
Added 10 months ago

I've had a brief look previously. Seems like a similar business to PWR Holdings (PWH.asx) with a few caveats:

  • Recent IPO so has less runs on the board compared to PWH
  • Still some shares on escrow from my understanding which may dilute existing holders
  • Results seem a bit more lumpy, and lower margins most likely due to having less scale than PWH

Interestingly though they do have some well credentialled personnel in the business with former Bapcor CEO Daryl Abotomey joining as interim CEO last year.

May be a good candidate for a meeting @Strawman ?

Disc: Not Held.

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Strawman
Added 10 months ago

Good call @BoredSaint -- i'll see if I can line up a meeting

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rh8178
Added 10 months ago

This piqued my interest - I love PWR, but have sat on the sidelines for the last 12 months watching the price go up and up...

On first blush, what is interesting about AHL is the improvement in free cash flow over the prior corresponding period. You've got c. $8m FCF for the half ($16m if you annualise it) on a $74m market cap. Sales are up 8% year on year, but they've done that on reduced inventory and debtors...a good trend and shows good discipline - not sure it's repeatable though. Inventory looks like a huge number...I'm going off to compare to PWR and see what they looks like...more research to go - I'd like to understand the product better, but an interesting candidate on the numbers at least. Thanks for alerting us to it,

Not held IRL or SM...yet

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edgescape
Added 10 months ago

Share price gone up since my vague time constrained low vote straw went up!

Maybe someone here saw through this and started buying.

I should do more of them!

Will have to say to the buyers is there any value here for auto aftermarket spares and radiators for ICE cars when we are going to EVs? That is the obvious bear case for the buyers pushing the price up recently.

Does not look like I will have my order filled.

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Karmast
Added 10 months ago

This would be a very interesting interview @Strawman , @BoredSaint and @edgescape once the new CEO starts in April.

Some heavy hitters on this Board. Chair is also the Beach Energy Chair (BPT). And other Directors are the founder as well as Don McGurk former Codan CEO and Daryl Abotomey former Bapcor CEO - both at these companies for about 10 years and both saw big multi bagger returns during their tenure. So it's an interesting place they have both popped up as Directors, on such a small cap.

There is some precedent for an Aussie auto / manufacturing business - the likes of ARB, PWH, SNL etc that started as small caps and have gone on to be great for early investors.

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edgescape
Added 10 months ago

@Karmast

I don't think Don McGurk is very significant to Adrad. Apart from being a non exec director, McGurk doesn't even have a holding in the company when it first listed and did not even buy at the lows.

Also I don't know the full story on why Daryl Abotomey was kicked out of Bapcor and came to be appointed interim CEO here. And incoming CEO Kev Boyle.

Which is why I'm still hesitant here and why I didn't mention any of this on my first post.

I'm waiting for this to go lower to be honest.

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Karmast
Added 10 months ago

@edgescape I agree without real skin in the game yet McGurk and Abotomey haven't maximised confidence. BUT...they are both very successful CEO's from large ASX companies that manufactured and then sold stuff, so it is curious that they would both turn up at what is currently such a small company. It does come with risk to their reputations to go there and not succeed this time, so maybe they just want the Director fees or maybe they think it has a solid future and they can help it move from a minnow to a mackerel???

I am not buying yet either but happy to add to the watchlist and even open a small position if it was to get a lot cheaper for no meaningful reason.

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edgescape
Added 10 months ago

Think McGurk has nothing better else to do after his retirement from Codan and decided this non exec role at Adrad was the best option.

Not implying he has become a lifestyle director.

I also see that Morgans and Bell Potter has a few price targets but I'm unable to find the reports. Maybe they are providing an artificial floor on the price.

My other concern is the EBITDA growth is single digits so at the moment I don't think at 94c is good value. Plus there is risk with Thailand. Maybe need to see this below 90c.

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rh8178
Added 9 months ago

Just going through the notes on the last couple of HY/Annual reports - there was a workplace incident and it looks like some warranty claims have come out of the woodwork. Has anyone seen any more colour on these than the brief mention in the reports that I can find? The workplace incident was severe, sadly it was a fatality, so surprising that it doesn't get a mention in CEO/Chair addresses at AGM's etc. Maybe that's for legal reasons, but not ideal.

Small holding IRL. Not held in SM.

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