Forum Topics BDX BDX Bear Case

Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

I missed the interview. But just caught up.

Summary - I think there are other competitors out there that are better placed to scale.

The main issue I can see with BCAL is that it needs it's own propriatary equipment to perform its blood test. Whereas, it's competitor, IIQ's SubB2M Breast Cancer test can be used with the existing equipment in existing pathology providers globally. So BCAL would need to have much better results than IIQ to justify the extra capex spend...but it has about the same sensitivity and specitivity. So I can't see how BCAL will scale compared to its competitors. Am i missing something?

When asked about the timeline to commercialisation compares between BCAL and IIQ, said she wasn't across IIQs timeline. But Jayne should be across all her competitors! Or at least say why the BCAL product is better etc. This left me cold.

Jayne also answered the question regarding Exosomes in a strange way. She was asked her views on exosomes in diagnosis...but only spoke about theraputics. So pretty much avoided the question. And the research has shown that exosomes in diagnosis is the future.

Also I note that Andrew Chapman's Merchant Fund has recently sold a large portion of their BCAL holdings. But has maintained their IIQ holdings and I have a feeling will invest more at the Cap Raise that is likey for IIQ in the near future to commercialise.

Parko

Disclosure - I have a very large IIQ holding.

Scoonie
4 months ago

Don’t disagree Parko, To add to your comments:

Whilst Jayne spoke freely and with obvious knowledge on the woes of ASX listed Pacific Edge (Bladder cancer testing) and Rhythm Biosciences (Colon cancer testing), she ran dead on any feedback on the most relevant ASX listed company IIQ. More generally when Andrew asked about the overall competitive landscape it was just a talk around. (What else would you expect!)

Similarly when asked about the financing it was not at all informative.  No doubt Jayne has her reasons for this. As at the 31/12/24 there was $6.3m cash and tax receivables.  Very roughly they appear to be going through about $2m a quarter.  And with a ramp up needed to get to generating revenue by the end of the calendar year, I would think a capital raising could not be ruled out.  

On a more positive note management appears to have a great local background in breast cancer diagnosis, and Janye made a point of telling the connections they have with various politicians.  Their strategy seems a plausible one. That is for the test to be used as an adjunct to the accepted though not infallible current standard of testing, the mammogram. Their focus being initially Sydney and Melbourne markets. . 

Jayne provided evidence that patients would pay an additional $300 for the greater security the complimentary Breastest test would provide.

Lets say they get their projected 20,000 - 40,000 tests next year at $300/test this is around $6m -$12m of revenue. Not inconsequential, however no guidance was given on what the margin might look like.     

All plausible, however who ultimately wins, and this is a world-wide contest, will be the company who quickly gets the regulatory approvals, gets to scale and can demonstrate the best science. And who knows who that will be.

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