Pinned straw:
MetalsX finally showing some initiative in capital management with the pile of cash lying around.
However this may not stop the share price being capped due to the selling from Old Peak.since most selling has been absorbed by APAC Resources Pty Ltd.
The story does not end there. Brett Smith who is the MD of MetalsX is also the deputy chairman of APAC Resources
Old Peak has 41m shares left vs 198m from APAC. The 41m could in theory be absorbed by the proposed buyback.
For those looking to get out and break even, including myself, maybe now is the chance?
Might be a prudent move given past valuations sub 20c? But recent performance and Tin price appreciation since the export hold in Indonesia gives some pause for thought
[held]
Metals X is an interesting company @edgescape - I posted a straw here this afternoon (CYM - Cyprium Metals Limited - Strawman: ASX share price, valuation, research and discussion) about CYM, who MLX sold their copper assets to in March 2021 after spinning out their gold assets in 2016 - into Westgold Resources (WGX), and I did briefly discuss that divestment strategy of MLX into a pure tin company now, and compared their 5 year share price returns to those of CYM, WGX and the main benchmark indices (XJO & XAO). Unsurprisingly, WGX has performed best, as gold has been making new all-time highs, while Copper hasn't done so well, and the CYM assets are not great copper assets anyway, and Tin has been up and down, with the MLX 5 year share price graph not being too far away from the 5 year tin price graph:
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/tin
So while buying and selling by "Subs" do certainly have impacts on the share price, it appears that the underlying commodity price has a far stronger correlation.
I do note that tin prices have been moving in a positive way (NE trajectory) over the past 16 months, and the MLX SP has been more sideways for most of that with an uptick more recently, so there might be a little catch-up happening now.
My brother does mine-site shut-down work, and has been trying to line up a short-term shut job at Renison (Australia's largest tin mine, 50% owned by MLX) and organise some hiking in Tasmania's south west directly afterwards - or before - or both, but the contracting company that he would be working for keep deferring the shut-down, or refusing to confirm the dates, so last time I talked to him (which was about a month ago when I was over in WA) he still didn't know if that would go ahead, or when. Not sure if that is a reflection on the mine management or the contractors however. He said there was also a lot of maintenance shut-downs being cancelled or deferred across Australia - especially in WA - mostly with nickel mines and processing plants. I would NOT think tin would be in a similar position, as tin prices have been recovering over the past 16 months. The feedback is that shutdowns across the gold sector seem to be fairly locked-in - they don't get changed or deferred very often, they tend to go ahead as planned, but that across base metals it's a different story at this point.