Pinned straw:
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/ARU/02784883.pdf
Still digesting the details.
But great result.
The headline figure is a bit decieving. A large chunk of the money is for Cost Overrun Facility Gaurentees (ie if the bank has to increase it's cost overrun facility...then the Export Credit Agency (in this case the Export Finance Australia and Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility) with provide increased guarentees. But the other side of it, means that if there are cost over runs....we have money! So this has de-risked it somewhat. But the way it is presented is confusing. I think Govt wanted to make the largest number possible...so just threw all the numbers into the annoucement. But I still need to fully understand what it means.
This is a quick table i knocked up.
The key thing i'm trying to work out is the size of the major capital raise to happen in a few months time.
If my understanding of the Cost overrun facility is correct....then they need to raise about $640 million (aussie). Which is about what we were told a month ago.
I have been doing some more 'digging'. And I now believe that the $1.68 billion includes the work already performed, long lead items that have been purchased and some of the design work. So that could reduce the amount required for the final capital raise and reduce the dilution. I'm still trawling through the last Definitive Feasibility Study and the cost updates in the quarterly documents...and then working out how much has been spent. Its hard to work out....but it think we could reduce the final equity required by about $100-150million.
So i think the cap raise will be about $400-500 million. (rather than the $650 million I had previously calculated). Obviously this all depends on the funding mix and which off take clients get selected etc. I have also heard that the participants for the final equity raise are all tier one players. Gina R will obviously participate, I also heard a major aussie super fund, and also potentially some of the off take parties may invest equity.
The SP drop, IMHO are the shorters manipulating the price to exit and some traders selling (most would have bought around $0.15 and sold around $0.25). With lots more positive news to come (off takes, commercial debt, equity lined up) etc.....SP will def move up.
If the SP heads back down south of $0.16 i'll be buying more.