Forum Topics SLH SLH Potential Red Flag

Pinned straw:

Added 8 months ago

I hold SLH in real life and am now underwater. I suspect I have been seduced by fancy ROE numbers when in fact I should also have been looking at the totality of the business and its history.

Look at the graph and this has been a shocker (weekly over 5 years).

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A listing price of $2.50 has seen a plethora of acquisitions reduce the SP to just $1.40. Talk about buying yourself into poverty.

Yep, I get it that the management team have been buying shares and that is a good sign, but is it a NECESSARY demonstrable act of presumed confidence to encourage the market? One sentence buried deep in the notes implies the external debt covenants may be in peril - quote - "The continued covenant compliance is dependent on the Group continuing to trade in line with its forecast" Hmmm, not a rolled gold endorsement! At the very least, this might curtail acquisitions whilst they get debt and 'acquisition bedding down' issues under control.And this will be a good thing. Maybe this industry is undergoing quite some change as the big get bigger & the small get out.

The 1HFY24 results were a shocker, but there were extraneouus issues on the dockside which upset normal operations. Also, the greater confidence in supply lines have resulted in many companies now reducing stocking levels & hence warehousing requirements - utilisation now down ot 77.4% (but this seems to be on a par with a another logistics compoany I follow).

I am hanging in there but expect to see a marked improvement in 2H results and (hopefully) the Red Sea issues and the need to re-route shipping via Cape of Good Hope will be another reminder to Aussie businesses that supply lines can be easily interrupted. I understand container rates are rising.

I note that the 3 analysts covering SLH still maintain favourable IV's, but are they acolytes/guns for hire. One of them has such a reputation.













Karmast
Added 8 months ago

@PortfolioPlus Good observations and concerns raised on Silk. I too am in the red and wasn't delighted with the first half results. BUT, there were pretty similar soft results delivered by the big guns in the sector at Qube and Mainfreight. So, I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for now and will be watching closely for the rest of the year. If we don't see some solid progress and increased utilisation of the available warehousing space, then my thesis could be busted.

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