The thing about shorts is eventually they have to buy them back

@Rick I have found that some of my best investments have been buying at times of high short interest and when the chartists are calling "sell". Examples are $PNV, $WTC and $RMD.

The key in your post is time horizon. The chartists are all about trading and short term. That's not my game. The chartists are also generally poor at picking the bottom. (They're really good at telling you when the bottom has passed!)

My approach, once I've decided I want to build a position based on fundamentals and if there is a short thesis in play, is to break up my intended position size into 3 or 4 chunks, and then to phase that in over time.

Psychologically, it is tough when you initiate a position and in the following days, weeks, and months it goes "red" by 5%, 10%, 20% or more. I can feel like I've made a bad decision. Phasing in increments is a good way of coping with that.

For example, last year I decided to double my holding of $RMD. I'd held $RMD and $FPH for a while in RL, had "deep dived" the segment and the companies, and had decided to exit $FPH and concentrate on $RMD, which I have now done. Just as I had reached that decision, the GLP-1 thing blew up. I soon concluded the market reaction was overblown and that I was happy to take a contrary view (covered here in ample straws and posts last year). So, I added chuncks of c. 20-30% during the peak short position and as shorts fell and then built back again. I added all the way from $30 down to $23. At one point all my new money was deeply in the "red".

Six months on, short interest is down from 3% to 1%, and its all noise in the past. I achieved the goal of doubling my position, and at what now looks like good prices all round. Now, $RMD was actually tough. After all, there is a plausible long term bear thesis, and it hasn't played out entirely yet. But I still see attractive returns in the medium term from my position.

$IEL is something different altogether. If you are a long term holder (by which I mean >5yrs, subject to performance etc. etc.) then the current short thesis is a short term phenomenon. I don't think even the shorters are arguing that the long term market for international students is going to decline.

On the contrary, as economic development continues in middle income countries in Asia, Africa and South America there are going to be increasing numbers of students seeking education in $IEL's markets. The overall market is projected to grow by anywhere from +50% to +200% by 2030. And that's before we talk about $IEL increasing its market share. So, the tailwinds are strong.

I see the bear/short thesis on $IEL as purely a short term cyclical phenomenon.

From 2019 through 2023 $IEL was on my Watchlist, but it was too expensive for me. I missed the bus, as it wasn't on my radar screen earlier.

The current macro-environment, government policy and short positions are the gift that has brought the business into my BUY zone. And I know when that happens maybe I'll have to tolerate 6 months or a year or so when I am in the "red". Indeed, with the short position apparently continuing to increase, it looks like we've got further to fall. So, I am keeping my last 25% of powder dry until there's some movement on sentiment or until I see the FY24.

Where I can improve my performance is better analysing charts and shorts to improve my timing / phasing in when building positions. That would probably add several % points to my RL returns. For example, even though my weighted-price is probably not too different from when the chartists come out the other end and go "buy", I lose a few % return points by allocating 3,6, 12 months early than in restrospect you otherwise would have. It understanding technicals can help me do that better, then I guess it is a skill worth sharpening.

As ever, I could be completely wrong. So, I am capping my ultimate allocation at 5% RL.