Forum Topics MMI MMI Bear Case

Pinned straw:

Added 8 months ago

All I'm going to say is that there is something not quite right here


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Now trading at market cap of 200m but still below the NPV.

Sometimes you can't use NPV or NTA as a guide for future returns - especially when it is a mining company that always seem to trade at deep discounts and are always price-takers.

Especially when it is an out of favour metal such as bauxite

But I do remember doing something like this before with Red5 and totally missed an opportunity.

An opportunity sitting in plain sight, or one to avoid?

occy
Added 8 months ago

I know nothing of the company as your post is the first I am knowing of their existence so can't comment on much but it did pique my interest as to the directors and if they have been active in accumulating shares. If there was to be a major disconnect between the price and value you would think they would be quite aggressive buyers as they are the ones in the know but there has been for the most part nothing going on years now outside of remuneration in their package being directors. In fact I'd suggest the directors have very little skin in the game for the most part


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edgescape
Added 8 months ago

@occy

Market index has some mistakes with director holdings.

Must admit the new management done wonders here in the last 12 months.

I've bought a few see where this goes.

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Scoonie
Added 8 months ago

Hi edgescape it will take some time to get your mind around this one and the current situation MMI are in.   

 In brief, it is a bauxite miner based in Cape York Australia.  Their operation is to dig up the material, minimally process it, put onto barges and then take the barges out to sea where the material it transferred to bulk ships and taken to China. Over the last couple of years they have copped every insult known to business, from COVID to cyclones and just about went broke.  

 There is new management (CEO Simon Wensley appointed July 2021 - so this transformation has been going on for some time) and they have been doing what appears to be all the right things from mine equipment upgrades to a new transhipper to refinancing.   In doing all this they have racked up considerable debt, and any buy-thesis is based on the operation this season going smoothly with increased production and bauxite prices holding up - and nothing else going wrong.

 A good starting point to understand MMI is their presentation of 26/2/24.

 It is a stock that has every chance of doubling or more over the next 12 months.  To buy it you have to believe in the management team that they have finally got it right and steel yourself for the possibility you could lose the lot.  

You can see Simon Wensley present at the Sydney Resources Roundup next Thursday at 10:15am.

Sydney Resources Roundup (riusydneyresourcesroundup.com.au)


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edgescape
Added 8 months ago

@Scoonie

Thanks for that. I'm well aware of the history. Didn't want to do a full blown straw.

At least it's better than some CEO founder spending 30+ years in the same company (not naming names) with no large corporate exp and not making much progress.

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