I read the report too, seems to be predicated on the market remarking CSL back to a 30x PE multiple and strong earnings growth from the Behring division (vifor seems to not be doing all that much from their forecasts).

Think CSL should do okay but think they’re running into the law of large numbers in the years ahead to keep up 15%pa earnings growth to substantiate a 30x multiple.

Had years of trending sideways and the overhang from the cap raising worked its way through should helpfully see it begin to do well soon.

This is not tracking upwards like we thought 10 months ago. I’ll do some research tmrw.

@Parko5 this was a straw from 10 months ago. But after doing more work, I wrote a longer Post after their last FY result about 6 months ago, as to why I decided to exit in RL.

Summary: 1) SP already bakes in Behring %GM improvement; 2) Sequirus looking a bit lacklustre; 3) Vifor looking at this stage like an underperforming acquistion; and 3) not great news on the R&D Pipeline progress in the last few years.

At the time, I needed the capital to put into a bunch of other ideas, and 6 months down the track, I still like that call.

So, I will be on the next results call, because now I have a bunch of cash again in RL, and who knows, maybe I was wrong.

For much of 2024 the "talking heads" narrative on $CSL was, its been flat for 5 years, so its due to breakout. After all, it first went through $300 back at the start of 2020! So in 5 years it has literally gone backwards.

I didn't see the basis for a "breakout" in my fundamental work. But more importantly, the deeper I went into it, the more I realised I didn't have a very robust basis for my views on any of its major segments. This is something that has happened to me with many firms: the deeper I go into it, the more I realise I don't really understand it well enough or I don't particularly like what I see!

But maybe pay no attention to me. GS are "Buy Rated" with a TP of $325.40 and they state a bunch of other reasons why they are on the other side of this particular trade.

More generally, see below, there's a very wide gap between the SP and analyst views. Also, the forward P/E of 27 is quite cheap, on a historical basis.

Maybe it will come good with a great result in a few weeks - but I don't have a strong conviction in it, and so my money's not behind it.

I can't blame you for exiting @mikebrisy. I have been a holder for pretty much all of this decade, and it has surely tested one's patience.

I'm still holding for now, but the upside doesn't seem particularly attractive either for a mature biotech like this.