Forum Topics ARU ARU Gina H buying up all the Rare

Pinned straw:

Added 2 years ago

Gina has been on a Lynas (LYC) buying spree. She how has 5.85%. 

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/rinehart-snares-big-stake-in-lynas-rare-earths-20240416-p5fkd4

She now has the following Rare Earth holdings:

 - 10% Arafura (ASX ARU)

 - 5.82% Lynas (ASX LYC)

 - 5.3% MP Material in USA (NYSE MP)

 - 5.85% Brazilian Rare Earths (ASX BRE)


It is clear Gina sees the potential in the rare earth sector. She also has the political influence in western parts of the world. 


I just wonder what her playbook/strategy is?

 - Leave them all separate

- Pros: Govt thinks there is lots of competition.

- Cons: Lots of management costs.

 - Merge them all

- Pros: Saving on management costs, can control pricing (almost a monopoly in western world extraction and processing)

- Cons: Lots of scrutiny from Governments if looks and operates like a monopoly. 

 - Merge some

- Pros: Could get monopoly type prices without the scrutiny from Govt. 

- Cons: Not as cost effective.


I’m just freestyling here…but I think a partial merger between them is good to extract monopoly pricing benefits, without pissing off Govt’s around the world. 

So which ones would merge? There has been lots of talk between MP and Lynas. That would probably make sense. Would be able to build monopoly on prices, but keep ARU seperate to give appearance of there being a ‘market’. And then she could build ARU through acquisitions. The CEO of ARU told me this is ARU’s longer term plan to grow ARU (and that their Nolans deposit is much bigger). 

Now the key question……how do we invest? I’m not sure how to do this type of analysis? How do people work out how to invest for potential mergers? 


Bear77
Added 2 years ago

Good pick up @Parko5 - I would have thought that somebody would have accumulated a blocking stake or something close to it in Lynas by now, but the largest shareholder appears to be Challenger (CGF.asx) with 7.07%, then some prime brokers and ETF providers (State Street & Vanguard) with 6.37% and 5%. Ausbill has 5.14% and Greencape Capital has 5.04%, so if they worked together that could be a blocking stake, put on the surface it looks like the ownership structure is fairly loose and Gina could likely build a controlling position without too much trouble.

Gina and her company Hancock Prospecting have already become Lynas' third largest shareholders with just the 5.82% initial position announced today. Only State Street (6.37%) and Challenger (7.07%) are ahead of her.

She could be trying to get some skin in the game of the opposition seeing as how she is the largest shareholder in ARU and appears to be driving their strategy now, or she could have a grander plan to merge some of these companies to create an even bigger threat to Chinese control of the REO market, as you have alluded to Parko.

This slide (slide 4) from the recent ARU-Mineral-Sands-and-Rare-Earths-Conference-Presentation.PDF [19-March-2024] gives us all we need to know about why:

8c3f2558bdeb2532fc1fd40d826669e5580f85.png

They have been ringing the changes at ARU recently:


Further Reading:

Rinehart’s MP Buy Could Trigger Rare Earths Mining Mega Merger (forbes.com)

Gina puts faith in Arafura Rare Earths’ story, pumping $60m in to put Nolans Project on path to development - Hancock Prospecting PTY LTD

Arafura Rare Earths obtains $840 million government funding boost - ShareCafe

Gina Rinehart | Gina Rinehart News, Philanthropy and Charity Work

Interesting that Marketscreener.com lists Gina as the largest holder of ARU and the Chinese Government as the second largest holder, with Gina owning exactly double what the Chinese Government apparently hold (in ARU):

9b3dbad425a7aeff036a7ecfa743531f3abbbd.png

It's interesting, Gina is Australia's richest person now, so she can do whatever she likes really. First Iron Ore, then Lithium, then Rare Earth Oxides (REOs), I wonder what else she has in her sights.

She also has substantial farmland and other real estate assets and owns businesses such as Driza-Bone and Rossi Boots.

It would be nice to be that rich that you can pretty much do whatever you want. I know she inherited a fair chunk of her wealth from her father (Lang Hancock) who was one of the Pilbara iron ore pioneers, but she hasn't frittered away that money, she's made a lot more money with what she had. And she's given fellow Western Australian billionairs like Andrew ("Twiggy") Forrest and Kerry Stokes a good run for their money, often coming out on top over both of them, not that it's a pissing contest, but sometimes it seems like it might be...

https://www.ginarinehart.com.au/biography/

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Bear77
Added 2 years ago

All good points @Parko5 - based on what you said it seems that the Marketscreener data IS out of date - I got it from here: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ARAFURA-RARE-EARTHS-LIMIT-6500561/company/

I don't have any further info than that - you are clearly all over this one - my interest is just as a spectator around how the iron ore billionaires like Twiggy and Gina and Chris Ellison are moving into other areas, with both Chris and Gina getting into Lithium and now Gina into REOs. And how Twiggy and Gina and Kerry Stokes have been investing in farmland over the past decade.

You are right of course, that the pricing assumptions around rare earths is critical to the investment thesis, and it seems that many of them are not replaceable, as in substitutable. I believe that when something becomes too expensive people usually find a cheaper substitute even if it is inferior in other respects, but my very limited understanding is that many of these REOs are NOT substitutable, or at least they aren't today - they may be in the future - so alternative supply to China is going to be very highly valued.

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