Thanks @Bear77

Gina has publically stated she is a fan of the CEO of Lynas. So I think that now with her increased stake, and relationship with the Lynas CEO, she can control Lynas's direction.

Thank you for the Marketscreener.com screen sot of ARU. Is this accurate and current? The Chinese owning that much....I thought they had sold out entirely. ECE Nolans was set up by China to invest in ARU (like a decade or more ago). They actually saved ARU with their investment. They wanted to increase their stake, but were told by FIRB no. Part of the reason for the SP drop from $0.70 to $0.15 was the constant on market selling by ECE Nolans. Plus the shorters knowing they were constantly selling. When ECE Nolans went under 5% i lost track of how much they had. I know that Gavin (the then CEO) had tried to convince ECE Nolans to sell off market (presumably to Gina). But they wanted to damage ARU (they don't care about losing money when China has 90% of the worlds supply).

Have a look at the Appendix 1 in the ARU-Mineral-Sands-and-Rare-Earths-Conference-Presentation.PDF [19-March-2024] you had above. Look at the Enterprice Value (EV) compared to MP and Lynas. Note that ARU are already saying they have alot more in the ground and ability to process to increase their NdPr Production. My thinking is that the EV for ARU should be at least as big as MP. Also with it's new tech and low operating costs...should be the most profitable. Also the current CEO said that they will probably sign agreements to process other rare earth stock from other companies.

PS I'm working on a post that explains my thinking of how the pricing of Rare Earths will play out. This is the critical assumption in rare earth investing.

All good points @Parko5 - based on what you said it seems that the Marketscreener data IS out of date - I got it from here: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ARAFURA-RARE-EARTHS-LIMIT-6500561/company/

I don't have any further info than that - you are clearly all over this one - my interest is just as a spectator around how the iron ore billionaires like Twiggy and Gina and Chris Ellison are moving into other areas, with both Chris and Gina getting into Lithium and now Gina into REOs. And how Twiggy and Gina and Kerry Stokes have been investing in farmland over the past decade.

You are right of course, that the pricing assumptions around rare earths is critical to the investment thesis, and it seems that many of them are not replaceable, as in substitutable. I believe that when something becomes too expensive people usually find a cheaper substitute even if it is inferior in other respects, but my very limited understanding is that many of these REOs are NOT substitutable, or at least they aren't today - they may be in the future - so alternative supply to China is going to be very highly valued.

Thanks for checking @Bear77

Yeah i wonder how much ECE Nolans sold?

You are spot on with substitution. Or rather the lack of substitution with NdPr for magnets. I did alot of reseach into what minerals were likely to be used in the Energy Transition. And for all of them there were substitution (like copper/aluminium) etc. Except NdPr in particular for rare earths.

There was alot of talk about ferite electrical motors. This was announced in 2023 by Elon musk for Telsa....just when they were negotiating their rare earth supply contracts with the Chinese! And we have not heard much since. Ferite electrical motors have been around a while and in use (i think from memoery they are used in BMWs). But they come at a cost....extra weight and size of the motor. And they are not as efficient and thus you need a bigger battery. And they still used some NdPr (just not as much). The other thing to note, is the amount of NdPr used in electrcial motors for cars, represents only about 0.23% of the total car cost. So if the price doubles it is not the end of the world for margins, or more likely just passed on to consumers. (Source - https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PEK/02045608.pdf )

I also think the environmental and social politics will be massive moving forward. China sources much of its stock from north east China and Myanmar. And in these locations they also do part of the processing insitu. Bascially they pour chemicals onto the areas they are excavating. This has caused massive environmental issues. Plus the radiation from the process et. Plus in lots of those areas there is exploration of workers (child workers, exposure to toxic chemicals/radiation etc. )This is a good read. https://e360.yale.edu/features/china-wrestles-with-the-toxic-aftermath-of-rare-earth-mining

Many countries around the world are starting to prepare legislation to ban products that use forced labor. And it is my opinion this will be extended to environmental destruction.

Lynas, MP and ARU will be mining and processing it's NdPr according to all laws.

My view is that in 3-5 years.....the NdPr price ex China will be massive!