My previous valuation (done in August of last year) was 15cps, and was based on the company hitting $90m in revenue by FY26 (about 15%pa top line growth) It also assumed better margins.

That doesnt seem reasonable anymore.

The company should do around $60m in revenue for FY24, and I'll grow that at 10% pa for 3 years to get $80m. On a 55% gross margin (generous) and $40m in OPEX you get close to $4m in pre-tax profit. So let's call it $3m in NPAT and apply a PE of 25 to get a market value of $75m.

That's $56m in present value (10% discount rate) or about 4.5cps. Let's call it 5 to get a nice round number.

That's a big drop from where I was (again a reminder of the sensitivity of these calcs), but i'm still assuming growth and a decent multiple.

Of course, you'd expect operating margins to improve over time and any demonstrable and profitable growth could well see EVS command a higher multiple. I modest tweak to things gets you to a much more bullish number.

I'm just not sure they deserve such assumptions at this stage.

I don't want to get stuck on false specificity, but the bottom line is that shares are probably around fair value (very broadly) if they do indeed manage to plod forward, and they are likely cheap if they accelerate growth and demonstrate a capacity to scale.

If growth slows, you'd have to consider shares expensive.

A reluctant hold for now. But the value prop suggests I should at least reduce my weighting, which I may do in the coming days.