Forum Topics PNV PNV Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added 7 months ago

There is a thread on HotCopper for PNV which is headed “the clinician’s speak”. There are an increasing number of positive studies and articles by clinicians about Novosorb BTM in the UK, US and India.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/the-clinicians-speak.6460688/page-15

There was also some excitement that the Newcastle upon Tyne hospitals NHS foundation trust bought £200,000 of BTM recently with a fairly enthusiastic ”legal justification”.

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2024/W17/821166385

The collection of positive feedback accumulated by those who follow the company suggests that sales should continue to take off.

It also seems to be a product that can be mass produced at scale. My only niggle is there was mention in a recent co announcement and in DW’s podcast of a new distribution centre in Melbourne, and I do not know whether growth can be funded from cash generated and held.


Disc: held, dyor




Parko5
Added 7 months ago

Hi @cbirtles

I saw that discussion on HC. Great news. And I think they said there are plenty of other hospitals in the UK still to purchase PNV product. So much more growth to come. And that is true of almost every country in the world. And then add in new products in the next few years.

In regards to the new facility. It is a new production facility, adjacent to their exisiting facility in Port Melbourne. This is fully funded by the last capital raise (can't remember exactly when...maybe a year and a bit ago). The current facility still has some more porduction capacity (i think they only run 1-2 shifts a day and only 5-6 days a week). But such is the anticpated growth demand, they wanted the new facility to be ready soon (like 2025) and to also provide some redundancy (ie fire etc). In about 5 years time, they will likely build a third production facility. Probably overseas, somewhere with good tax/grants etc.

Cheers

John

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mikebrisy
Added 7 months ago

@Parko5 @cbirtles that's correct. I recall $25m allowed for the new facility in the capital raise. Design should be completed by end FY24, so we'll see the final cost (be prepared for a potential uplift, as the initial estimate was getting on for 2 years ago.) maybe in the FY in September.

The new facility is designed to see them through to total annual sales of $500m (that's 5x FY24!). That's how capital light this business is.

When it comes onstream in FY26 we'll see %GM tick down a little, but not much by my reckoning. Yes there is still capacity available in the current lines, but I think at the rate they are growing they are going to need the new plant not too far down the track. That said, in the last call, Swami spoke about the productivty improvements they are getting out of the existing process. So it does look like he's been paying attention to it. I am a bit concerned about concentartion risk in their current operation. But 50-60% sales growth quickly eats up spare capacity....so I wonder in the Operations Manager is sleeping well at night. (I did that role decades ago, and having a hypergrowth product and new capacity on the drawing board is not a comfortable place to be. Getting plants going in that industry is not always easy.)

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cbirtles
Added 7 months ago

Great thanks for resolving that for me


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