Pinned valuation:
Washington Soul Patts - I hold in RL 20% SMSF and SM 20% and have topped up over the last week.
i have mistakingly traded in and out from 2022 when I should of held through. Half year results show a compound 9.6% dividend growth over 24 consecutive years. Unbeaten on the ASX
Using a gordon growth model, smoothing out their next dividend and dropping the div growth to 8% and applying 10% discount rate I get to $40. Most on Strawman don't need any further info on what Soul Patts does, but the director buying in the past week including a lazy $17million from Rob Milner gives you a pretty good indication their strategy of growing dividends is on track in what is a volatile market.
Currently sitting just below their 200MA and although on Strawman there is a particular focus on small cap and growth companies, I think this company is probably at a fair value potentially a good discount where you can top up over time (at least the next 20years for me anyway)
Valuation SOL - $40 adding more details to my previous post
Strategic
Soul Patts is an investment conglomerate that has a reputation for conservatism and long term holdings. They have the ASX record for longest period of increased dividend payments (24years) and are compounding their div growth at 9.6%. The group is headed by the Millner family, who have board seats on many of their strategic businesses.
The past 3years has been transformative for the business including their takeover of Milton and a shift towards Private Equity and credit. They are now valued at $11.5b.
Opportunity
For me the Soul Patts opportunity is ongoing fully franked divided stream that is growing at 9.6%pa. For conservative investors who want reliable tax effective dividend income that grows, then this is probably one of the best options on the asx. This is the premium you pay for certainty.
Risks
Their strategic portfolio is 50% of the value and provides a significant proportion of their income This portfolio consists of ownership stakes in 40% NHC, 43% BKW, 12% TPG, 7% PPT, 36% PCG, 31% AIS, 25% TUA and 30% Apex Healthcare (Malaysia). Therefore their risks lie with their largest holdings being New Hope Group and Brickworks, although BKW is confusing due to the cross holding. Both dependant on each other. New Hope has provided outsized returns over the last 3years and with their earnings dropping off in line with thermal coal price, although they are the lowest cost producer and their recent convertible note offer whilst sitting on close to half a million in cash suggests there is an acquisition coming. There only seems to be improved returns from TUA which pays no dividend, although all other companies have returned consistent dividends for the past 12months. Although many of these companies have declined in value over the past 12months. Id expect net cashflows to be lower this current 12months.
Fundamental
Their strategic portfolio is combined with a large caps portfolio (ex Milton merger) which has provided dividend income and liquidity to help fund their private equity investments. They have sold down a large chunk of the large caps which is decreased their dividend income / cashflow.
They have been very active with their private equity arm, investing in Amp control, Soul Patts Agricultural, swim schools and this is where I think they will devote a large part of their future investment. The more recent investment portfolio consists of their private credit business which they have grown quickly in the past 12months. Seems to be the buzz word at the moment…
SOL has a compound return of 12.4% for 20years. Due to the lumpiness of the cashflows/dividends and how they report it’s not a simple business to assess. As I have referenced above it should be treated like more of a fund manager without any restrictions or “unconstrained mandate” as they term it.
If SOL continue to increase dividends around 8-9% then based on a gordon growth model with 87c dividend, 10% disc rate and 8% div growth I get roughly $40per share. If dividend growth was to slow, this would change my valuation.
Technical
Having bounced from its low at $31 just under the 100EMA I am holding here and waiting for reporting season which I think will show decrease in net cashflow which may give an opportunity to top up closer to the $30 mark. SOL has been in a strong uptrend since they 2022 pullback and will continue to grind higher over time.
Final Thoughts
A very low risk equity that pays consistent growing dividends. The direction and decision on their next dividend will shape my next purchase of SOL.
absolutely @thunderhead I usually pick up some BKW (RL 12%) whenever the opportunity arises, have had a few opportunities over the past 3months aswell, given its volatility. 
this slide really re-inforces you are simply buying SOL like a "class b share" style.