Forum Topics AVA AVA Q3 2024 Update

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

Not a terrible Q3 update from AVA, but not great either.

Sales orders are up 15% comparted to the same time a year ago, and they have $8.6m in order backlogs (2/3rds will be converted to revenue this financial year).

The company still reckons it will do $16-20m in H2 revenue (the wide range due to the timing of project delivery). They did $14.2m in the first half of FY24, which means the full year figure will be between $30.2m-$34.2m. That's exactly what their 3 year outlook calls for, and the outlook is unchanged from what they said in March.

Still, this picture is worth a thousand words:

5b127d0e4c90ae50e31968805a8aa089804bd4.png

Growth may be 15% for the FY-to-date in sales orders, but it was Q2 that did all the heavy lifting, and the most recent quarter is down on what they did in the previous corresponding period. Detect was underwhelming due to project timing, and Mal said he expects to finalise various opportunities in the last quarter.

So, it's great to see they are on track to hit their guidance, but what we really need here is an acceleration in sales. You have to give some slack for the variability of revenues, but the market probably wont move much until there is some very clear evidence of growing traction.

[HELD]

fcmaster26
3 months ago

A weak Q3 order intake is an indicator of a weak H1FY25, if we all agree that the stronger H2FY24 is a direct result of record high Q2 order intake. If the company still wants to hit the $37M revenue safely, the Q4 order intake has to be extraordinarily large, even larger than Q2FY24 since this Q3 is below average.

I'll call bullshit and maybe start selling for the first time in many years if the Q4 result is below $8M.


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