Botanix Pharmaceuticals Limited

ASX:BOT

Botanix Pharmaceuticals Limited

ASX:BOT
TradeAdd trade order Follow Unfollow Set Price Alert
$0.360 (-2.7%)
Last close price
#10
Rank
32
Held by
30
Followers
TradeAdd trade order Follow Unfollow Set Price Alert
Reports (2) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics BOT BOT Webinar

Pinned straw:
mikebrisy
Added 3 months ago

I attended the $BOT Commercial Webinar today.

Presentation

Obviously, everything hinges on the FDA decision slated for late June. However, that aside, the presentation gives a good indication as to just how advanced they are with their innovative, direct-to-cutomer via telehealth approach.

I have no experience of comparable case studies using this launch approach to be able to critically assess it. However, the team have approached all the Tier 1 payors, and seem to be getting a positive response. Manufacturing and supply chain is all set up.

Today's SP response continues a steady trend of buyers moving in following the confirmation a few months ago that their resubmission to the FDA represented a "Complete Response". That of course does not prejudge the approval decision, but the market is starting to position itself for an approval (as I indicated it would last year).

Clearly, an acquisition (i.e., being acquired) is very much on these folks mind ... a lot of the team has been there before.

Potentially a big upside here. Over to you, FDA. Let the countdown continue.

Happy to hold for a binary outcome, as the CoS looks high. But FDA approval is never a slam dunk.

Disc: Held in RL and SM
Nnyck777
3 months ago

@mikebrisy provided an excellent summary, Very slick presentation. I was particularly interested in the distribution plan too. They seem to be using collective experience to design a repeatable distribution model. This would be a brilliant strategy for acne and rosacea also.

I certainly feel like this is being set up to be a plug and play model for an acquirer.

The amounts discussed today are eye watering and the companies marketing strategies certainly seem smart. 1% of the HH market being $300 million revenue. An automatic access stream to 50,000 HH patients through the HH society. The president of the society certainly heaped praise on the companyu for listening and getting the HH journey And being incredibly collaborative.

This is a very, very smart team. The team is why I weathered the disappointments and doubled kjdown on this investments back in the lows of 3c.

I certainly see 40c achievable on positive sentiment alone pre-FDA. This could be a momentum trade for a keen trader with an opt out clause in early June before a binary decision. I see $1 achievable post approval in a forward looking market.

16
mikebrisy
3 months ago

@Nnyck777 I think this one still isn't really on the radar screens of institutions or doesn't fit their mandates - small cap, with a binary risk profile.

I can only find one research house (Euroz Hartley, which I think is paid research) that is covering it with a TP of $0.30.

Even though the price has started moving up in anticipation of the approval milestone, it is probably largely hot money. Apparently, there was something like 450 attendees on today's webinar.

Of course, if the June approval comes through, then the risk profile changes fundamentally and I think there could be very strong SP action, simply because once you start to apply M&A multiples to forecast sales, you can get pretty much any number you like. (i.e., some of the numbers being thrown around in the Q&A on today's webinar, as well as one's you've mentioned on straws last year.) Also, with a dramatically changed risk profile of an approval, that will bring it squarely into the mandate of small cap and health-focused funds, including offshore. Some will be eyeing the M&A premium, simply because it addresses a gap in the market and therefore a gap in the portfolio of any number of dermatology players.

Given that there are no safety or efficacy issues (based on FDA reviews) and that the labelling and information resubmission was a "complete response" with 100% compliance in the human factors study, AND given the positive feedback from the patient advocacy group leader who spoke at the webinar today and the reported payer responses, I'm scratching my head to understand what the basis for a rejection could be.

My basic risk aversion means I may regret not having a larger position. However, where I am now means that in the 5-10% (??) chance of any further delay, I can live with the inevitable price collapse that would follow. Equally, my RL position is large enough that I would be quite content with another 2x to 3x from here, which is quite conceivable if they get early sales traction. Whatever happens, I'm holding what I've got. This is not about take profits on a modest holding!

Hat off to you for picking up more at 3c!

16
Nnyck777
3 months ago

@mikebrisy provided an excellent summary, Very slick presentation. I was particularly interested in the distribution plan too. They seem to be using collective experience to design a repeatable distribution model. This would be a brilliant strategy for acne and rosacea also.

I certainly feel like this is being set up to be a plug and play model for an acquirer.

The amounts discussed today are eye watering and the companies marketing strategies certainly seem smart. 1% of the HH market being $300 million revenue. An automatic access stream to 50,000 HH patients through the HH society. The president of the society certainly heaped praise on the company for listening and getting the HH journey and being incredibly collaborative.

This is a very, very smart team. The team is why I weathered the disappointments and doubled down on this investments back in the lows of 3c.

I certainly see 40c achievable on positive sentiment alone pre-FDA. This could be a momentum trade for a keen trader with an opt out clause in early June before a binary decision. I see $1 achievable post approval in a forward looking market.

6