Forum Topics BOT BOT Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Straw deleted
mikebrisy
Added 2 years ago

@NewbieHK I agree. When I ran my numbers yesterday and came up with a valuation of 4X the SP, it caused me to check my calcs 3 or 4 times. But the numbers are what they are.

I don’t see how EH got their low number. It’s almost as if they’ve said, “we think it will ramp up 30% before approval, so that’s the number.”

It is unusual to see an 9 year EBIT profile that then leads to such a low ball TP.

In any event, this one is going to be an “interesting” hold.

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mikebrisy
Added 2 years ago

@conrad, to me it looks like they set out 4 scenarios, which are really only two scenarios with two discount rates for each. But then only picked the lower market scenario with the higher discount rate to arrive at the target valuation.

They comment that the comparison to Japan of 1% is conservative.

They might have argued that uptake in the US could be lower because the US price is so much higher, but pricing has been tested and it is the payers that will pick up much of the tab. So I have assumed the $BOT folk know what they are doing on pricing, given the experience of the team.

Anyway, I’m all set and less than 4 weeks for news one way or another. Should we pass approval, I’m assuming there will be more coverage, and all talk of $0.33 will be consigned to history.

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