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Pinned straw:

Added 6 months ago

I discovered Verbrec thanks to Westferry, who would have invested in it 4-5 months ago. I've since noticed their position steadily increasing, and as of now, Verbrec is their 5th largest holding.

What interests me about Verbrec is that it's a turnaround story in plain sight. If they continue performing at this pace, even without further growth, they will be undervalued.

Currently, Verbrec's enterprise value (EV) is $50M. In their first-half presentation, they reported a profit from continuing operations of $2.9M. This positive result was offset by losses from legacy operations, which they have now exited.

This improvement is part of a turnaround plan led by their new CEO, Mark Read. I had the opportunity to meet him at my Brisbane Angels pitch and spoke with him for about 15 minutes. He impressed me as genuine and straightforward, and he spoke about favourable market conditions, notably their clients' desire to maximise asset use.

Overall, from my back of the napkin, Verbrec should on track to achieve a full-year profit of about $6M+ next fiscal year. This results in an EV/profit valuation of 8. If they don't grow much, they should be valued at around 11, implying a fair share price of approximately $0.17. If they grow at a mid-teens rate, the fair value would be closer to 13, suggesting a share price of $0.21.


edgescape
Added 6 months ago

@JPPicard Cheers for that. They are the same figures I had if things execute.

I guess you are still catching up with this and hadn't seen myp posts.

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JPPicard
Added 6 months ago

Indeed, I had completely missed your posts, @edgescape. I'm with you on this one. Good find and good research from you.

I agree that stockpile is a promising part of the business, but it seems unlikely to drive significant growth in the near future given its small starting point. I also question how large the market is for such a niche piece of software. However, it's nice that such an affordable business has this asset in their portfolio.

Keen to see Verbrec's full year results in a couple of months!

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