Forum Topics AQZ AQZ FY24 NPBT up 60%!

Pinned straw:

Added 6 months ago

The universal hatred of airlines as an investment because they are so capital intensive with flukey revenue streams and a POO (price of oil) which can be extremely erratic does have a few exceptions, one of which is Alliance Airlines (AQZ).

 Let’s debunk these assertions right now:

 Capital intensive, yes, by the very nature of the assets involved, but this is substantially lessened by astute buying, something which AQZ absolutely excels at.

 Take the initial 30 E190’s they acquired in Covid times (2021) at $5m a pop. Marry this up with the recent announcement (May 29) of them selling 5 E190 engines at $5m a pop.

 E190’s have two engines indicating that we have a significant accretion over cost. The second tranche of 30 E190’s will likely average around the $10m to $11m each, so again, brilliant buying. My very quick analysis of world-wide used E190’s would suggest their true value is somewhere around $18m AUD.

 The 1HFY24 Balance Sheet reflected Planes to be worth $595m; that’s for the 37 Fokker fleet and 33 E190’s. At $18m apiece for the E190’5, we are carrying the entire Fokker fleet at nil value!

 Bring in the extra 30 E190’s at a cost of $10m each and a real value of $18m and we have a mark to market advantage of at least $200m   

Next points: Flukey revenue & erratic POO! – Over half of AQZ revenue comes from fixed FIFO contracts & we have some 26 planes wet leased to QAN which means 'bums on seats' (one or many) are a non-issue AND in both cases there are escalation clauses to protect AQZ from POO movements (sorry toilet type humour isn’t my intention here, because this is a seriously undervalued company.)

 Oh yes, sleepy old Mr Market also missed yesterday’s announcement of a 60% increase in NPBT for FY24 and based upon their business model this can only get better.

Discluosure: I am a long term holder and a few of those years have been tough, but this is now flying and dividends will be re-institued next year.

 

Slideup
Added 6 months ago

@PortfolioPlus, I just had some time to look at this announcement in a bit more detail and its not quite as good as I thought on my first read through. The headline $83M PBT is great relative to last years $53M. The problem is that the underlying flight business hasn't improved as much as I had hoped for. Much of the jump in profit is mostly due to the sale of the 5 E190 engines for $25m. This is a great outcome and a good return on investment given the purchase price of each of these planes has been $7-12m and the ones parted out are probably the $7m ones, so selling each engine at $5m is a great outcome. This is a solid part of the business, but it could be a bit of a sugar hit for this financial year and I'm not sure if we should be considering this as more of an abnormal event or not? Alternatively given that they expect 11 of the 33 planes from Aercap to be parted maybe we should be expecting parts sales to be a larger contributor to the bottom line over the next 3-4 years? No real point here just thinking aloud. The extra cashflow is good timing though and further removes some pressure from funding the extra purchases to come.

If we strip out the $25m parts sales from the $83 PBT and assume 30% tax rate then we get a NPAT of $40.6m vs $36.6m for last year. EPS has increased from 22 to 25 cps, so it is solid 10% increase and next year should be better again given more planes will be flying.

This is definitely on the right trajectory and I am happy to keep holding. Agree fully with your assessment of this atypical aircraft company.

12

Strawman
Added 6 months ago

@PortfolioPlus @Slideup

You've piqued my interest here. Substantially better operating margins and growth than something like Qantas!

I've emailed the company to see if their MD is available for an interview.

11

Arizona
Added 6 months ago

@Strawman Excellent. Thank you

4

Strawman
Added 6 months ago

So Alliance are keen but are in "blackout" until their results are out in August. We'll get them in then.

13

PortfolioPlus
Added 6 months ago

I hear you Slideup...and I have an email into Marc Devine requesting details of the wet leasing of the second tranche of E190's. I am presuming they are been used in the FIFO routes and not just sitting on the tarmac, though AQZ have always let it be known they like to have surplus capacity at all times to cater for emergencies and late order contracts. But gee, it would be great to get another 30 leased out to QAN, wouldn't it?

As to the parting out and the build up in the parts & services division, I am not concerned about this because I saw a similar business grow in PTB - taken private a few years ago and we made a very handsome capital gain. The mere fact they are talking about parting out up to 12 (now temporarily reduced to 7) suggests they see this as a viable way of realising on their E190's acquired and to be acquired. So definitely, a profit making division going forward. Plus do remember, the capital costs of bringing each E190 on line as a revenue producer (wet or dry lease) will now be significantly reduced because the costs of infrastructure are now in place as are the systems - almost a ''cookie cutter'' approach, now I would think. And the Rockhamption facility shoud see our costs of keeping the birds maintained will be cheaper than flying them overseas for such servicing.

Reading between the lines, there is a very good 'scratch my back & I scrach your back' relationship with AerCap. They clearly want to quit the planes and are offering generous vendor finance to achieve this result. That takes the heat off AQZ who, in the past, have been a little slack/sloppy in managing their financing arrangements.

12