Forum Topics AD8 AD8 Bear Case

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

Fri 31.05.24

Still a bit more in the tank to give back. I am suspicious of there still being a little more to drop yet. What I'm really be looking for is the first waves 1&2 up to see how they form. This red bar this morning confirms the sentiment still hasnt turned positive enough yet for it to start its upward swing yet. There is definitely movement around this price point though as you can see by the Volume at this level. Note we are at the 38.2% level at $15.05. 50% retrace level of the stock since inception would be $12.45 ish

Im watching that tiny ABC down marked in Orange for now.

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You will note the Pink horizontal support line @ $14.06 though. If it gets there I will probably start a position there.

Possible next price target down is $13.52 - $14.04

Also note this came in this morning on Trading View,

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thunderhead
a month ago

How did you arrive at those pink horizontal lines of support @Saiton? Thank you, and my apologies if it isn't obvious from the chart.

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Saiton
4 weeks ago

Oh sorry they are historical levels where the $ paused (the number of instances it has paused there, the stronger the Supp/res level for the future) and depending on where it was up to on the Stochastic indicators, Fibonacci levels etc determines if I were to take a positon. Remeber though nothing is perfect (could pause there and then continue on its way or turn around and go in the other direction). It simply icreases the probability of it heading in the direction you are after.

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You question made me clean up the chart so you can see better.

Just while Im here, those white arrows point to an interesting day. Huge Volume and the bar hardly moved. The bulls were fighting the bears to break above the recent high a week or so before and the bears won causing a Double Top. See how the following day it dropped on small volume, the bulls just stopped to see what would happen. If I was part of that day, I would have sold my position at 3.58pm on that day or the afternoon of the next, sacrificing a little to make a more solid decision. Thats what I say in hind sight, but at least I can see it now. Thats a start

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thunderhead
4 weeks ago

Thanks for the additional context @Saiton. Your cleaned up version of the chart is still way too busy for a pleb like me :D

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edgescape
a month ago

Wasn't there a capital raise at $13?

If so that would my trigger for AD8.

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thunderhead
a month ago

Yes. CEO sold a reasonable amount of his holding just prior too.

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mikebrisy
a month ago

@edgescape It is so intersting to consider the different perspectives and buying triggers: chart trend, value of last issued capital, CEO selling price etc.

Mine has been my view on value ($14-$24), and my relief that the bus I thought I missed while stepping off in January (because I thought it was driving too fast) has returned to pick me up.

In RL, I am back to a 4.3% position. Will rest here and take my seat. But will align my SM holding.

@Saiton - really enjoying the running chart updates and commentary!

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edgescape
a month ago

@mikebrisy It's not the insider selling that is driving me up the wall here but when it is done either before a capital raise or before someone important resigns. Not only does it raise questions on conviction but governance as well.

Overall I don't mind now if someone sells as long as there is nothing odd about it

Having said all this, I'm probably going to miss the AD8 boat anyway with capital allocated elsewhere for now.

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