Forum Topics LOV LOV Divestment decision

Pinned straw:

Added 4 weeks ago

This morning $LOV announced their CEO succession. I didn’t see that one coming. 

ASX Announcement

Rock Star Victor Herrero is staying on for another year until 31st May 2025, and will be replaced by John Cheston, who I understand is currently the MD of Smiggle, in the $PMV stable.

Given that Victor only joined in late 2021, this wasn't a long tenure.

This morning I sold my entire holding at the open, for three reasons.

  1. Part of my thesis was that Victor's experience in leading Zara's Asia-Pacific expansion would be key to the group success in China
  2. Following last week's exchanges on here, I did a deep dive over the weekend into new store openings. Not that great, (See below)
  3. Shares are currently priced for perfection, and require flawless execution to sustain their premium.


Store Count

Assuming their global website is up-to-date AND that all franchises lists their store on it, I gleaned the following insights from some weekend data analysis.

  • In the last few months, it appears few if any net new stores have opened in the US
  • In ANZ it looks like they have opened only 3 net new stores since end 2023
  • They still have only one store in Mainland China
  • The main countries growing are Canada, Ireland, Germany, Belgium - 26 of the new stores by my count
  • By my analysis stores have increased from 854 to just over 900 since Dec-23. About +50


Now my analysis might be wrong, because I had some data integrity issues with my web-scraping and data analytics, but I did do some manual checking, and I think it is directionally correct.

What is interesting, is that the counting confirmed my hypothesis about China. Despite having been open there for one year, they either haven't cracked the formula to rollout and/or the market conditions are not favourable.

I am working on other things today, but combined with the ongoing global consumer weakness, my hypothesis is that $LOV will be tracking along the lower bound of my valuation, indicating that it is significantly OVER-VALUED.

Hence I exited immediately this morning on the news about Victor. (This is one big tax bill I didn't want!)

Victor was on an extremely lucrative package. But hitting all his incentives required a continued strong global rollout. Maybe he knows something. Speculation, but can't help it.

Disc: Not held in RL, still held in SM

UlladullaDave
4 weeks ago

Victor was on an extremely lucrative package. But hitting all his incentives required a continued strong global rollout. Maybe he knows something. Speculation, but can't help it.


This is my take as well. No one is going to walk away from tens of millions of dollars a year if they think they can hit it. The LOV valuation is just so exxy up here – if we exclude the covid years it's more expensive than it's ever been on a forward PE basis and it's basically doubled in the last 6 months. Every second article on Livewire – which a good froth barometer – seems to be some finance type pushing it.

The nice thing about retail stocks is they usually sell off at least once a year, and we're due with LOV.

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Strawman
4 weeks ago

No better problem than a tax problem @mikebrisy ;)

Seriously though, congrats on a great trade, and well done on sticking to your process.

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mikebrisy
4 weeks ago

@Strawman thanks. I was a bit nervous putting the trade on at 10:00am this morning, but the volumes looked OK. (When I saw the volumes coming in I even adjusted my price limit down to $31.00!) Happy with the price I got - $32.75.

Its another example where I have done a fundamental valuation on a market darling that had been dragged down by sector sentiment and started to lose its shine. The previous one was $ABB.

I was super high conviction $LOV was worth more than $20. (It is one case where arguably I should have blown my position sizing "rules" - but then again for every good call there's been at least one bad one), It is still a great company, and I'd own it again at the right price.

Time to start sharpening the pencil on valuations in retail,...and elsewhere.

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Seasoning
4 weeks ago

Also a reluctant seller. Something unusual in the news made me hit the panic button (like people said on what Victor was getting it was really unusual). Figured i'd just panic early and be done with it, still got a pretty good return out of it.

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mikebrisy
4 weeks ago

As discussed here late last week, I was mulling over reducing or exiting, and had started trimming on SM, though not in RL. The SM conversation prompted me to do some research over the weekend, looking at comparables recent reports (mainly overseas), consumer confidence data in key countries, and to analyse the changes in numbers of stores by country since end 2023.

My conclusion: I was likely to sell as my 12-month anniversaries of buying came around for each tranche - all getting in before the FY Results (albeit maybe not all before a trading update.)

So, I was primed to sell, just not expecting to this morning. The CEO change pushed me over the edge - because it supports my emerging view on results in the short to medium term. It was an esay decision, because I was pretty much ready to hop off the bus anyway.

As @UlladullaDave notes, retails stocks go up and down with wonderful frequency. If ever there was a sector where the efficient market theory doesn't apply ASX discretionary retail is it!

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Ipsum
4 weeks ago

The AFR has covered the departure (Brett Blundy poaches new Lovisa boss from Solomon Lew’s retail empire).

Towards the end of the article there is some speculation on the reason for the departure:

Citi analyst Sam Teeger said he was surprised that Mr Herrero would depart given “previous indications were that he seemed content in the role and wanted to remain”.

Mr Teeger said that the 71 per cent remuneration cut for Mr Cheston could indicate what Lovisa had been willing to pay Mr Herrero. 


No idea if this is correct, but it's a reasonable point: Victor Herrero might have been happy to stay on but his compensation demands were not reasonable, or perhaps just not achievable.

> Every second article on Livewire – which a good froth barometer – seems to be some finance type pushing it.

Great point!

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I had a long text to post on this that suddenly disappeared, probably my fault, touched something, i wont repeat it in full

im in two minds, the valuation is full, i suspect there are consensus momentum chasers in the stock that will have to be shaken lose at some stage (overowned), LULU NKE SBUX etc all near 12 month lows so not much conviction around the world for Con disc at the moment, except LOV, so some risk in the ST/MT.

re unexpected mgt changes are never great. the unusual thing here is that the replacement is lined up already, so this has been in the works for a while. VH was paid a motza, and did a reasonable job, but doesn't rate as a rock star (except for the salary lol) in my books, too soon. the connection with McInnes / Cheston is interesting, both from the Solie Lew camp. so he has been picked by McInnes who worked with him. I suspect PMV and LOV are not the easiest firms to work at, the expectations are high to deliver, but the new guy would know what is expected. the STI etc is a challenge, imo. either VH wanted to extend on terms BB wasn't prepared to go for or there is another issue, which could be anything.

in regard to rollout, i suspect it will be a rollercoaster as ive said before.


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