Forum Topics DRO DRO DRO valuation

Pinned valuation:

Added 5 months ago
Justification

Using Revenue Target of 300-500m by 2028 as mentioned by the company.

Looking at 2023 margins of 9.3m NPAT off 55m Revenue = ~16% and extrapolating out to the targeted revenue.


2028 NPAT = 48m (300m revenue)

= 700m shares / 48m

= 6.9c eps

@ PE 30 = $2.07

@ PE 40 = $2.76

@ PE 50 = $3.45


2028 NPAT = 80m (500m revenue)

= 700m shares / 80m

= 11.4c eps

@ PE 30 = 3.42

@ PE 40 = 4.56

@ PE 50 = 5.70

Investors can decide on what discount you wish to assign today.


I am using PE 50 at 300m which so happens to be similar to PE 30 at 500m so let’s say 3.40 and discounted back at 10% per annum to give me ~2.00 today.

I think that’s right.

Anyway thought I would give this a go to give myself a sense of a valuation.


Hawkdog27
Added 5 months ago

DRO broker report

https://www.asx.com.au/content/dam/asx/broker-reports/2024/dro-initiation-sequoia-180624.pdf

Sequoia Initiation NOT RATED

A couple weeks old, but just came into my inbox through weekly brokers report email.

delete if already posted.


9
Byrnesty
Added 5 months ago

@NewbieHK I am definitely suffering jealousy on this one from not buying at $0.30.

I would be cautious on the shares on issue though.

Currently 762M and over the last 4 years growing at 26% per year. SOI could easily double+ over the next four years impacting your valuation.

16

NewbieHK
Added 5 months ago

@Byrnesty Thanks for pointing out the actual SOI. I was a bit sloppy for not checking that.

Yes, the shares on issue and the potential for more to be issued is definitely something to keep in mind.

Of course revenue might also be lower or higher than, their current projections.

Alternatively, the company could be bought out at a premium to my attempt at a valuation.

Many variables to consider, but, with one of the arguments I keep seeing is that the stock is so overvalued.

Consequently, I wanted to put some numbers down so I had a valuation in my mind for consideration.

Thanks again. Cheers.

14

GazD
Added 5 months ago

they have a huge warchest now. If they issue more shares they’d better have a bloody good reason @Byrnesty

13