Pinned valuation:
I've done a bit of work on a break-up valuation of Australian Vintage's balance sheet and I keep getting the ~$0.34 share price range even when applying the following discounts:
Assuming they need to raise at least $25m as low as $0.20, that brings me back to ~$0.30 with dilution. Not sure what I'm doing wrong here, but finding it difficult to put a number on this.
Complicating factors include that they're operating cash burn is $20m pa and they're probably completely out of cash. I think the business is structurally broken, the brands are worthless (McGuigans? OK boomer).
There are hints of some problems with receivables and lumpy inventory.
Regardless, they're still carrying a lot of inventory and assets that are of value to the right razor gang even though we have just seen Accolade walk away.
Venturing a $0.20 capital raise for a break-up valuation of $0.30 per share.
Turns out this was dead on the money!
I think $0.20 is deliberately low, to attract Accolade back. They need something if they can't get cashflow positive. Multiple AFR articles out today covering this, including one opining for the return of Accolade.