I'm not sure one can find a more picture-perfect breakout. Gap up, Very high volume, Large bar & close near the high.

Nothing is ever for sure, especially in technicals, but I think this has good odds of some decent appreciation in the near

term. I am happy to have kept what started as mostly a pure trade, as a longer-term investment and although I will be taking

some profit along the way, I will keep a decent chunk as long as the fundamentals make sense to me.

@CommonCents If you look back over the years, today is far from unprecedented for $PNV. What's interesting, is that as far as I can see, there is no news except a very risk-on day for the market, combined with a muted day for ASX miners, leading to some strong action in ASX mid-caps (given that banks are well and truly fully priced - per other posts today, including @Rick). On the ASX there are limited places for the capital to go. High risk healthcare has been a big beneficiary the last few days.

The more turns I take on this particular rollercoaster, the less fussed I am. For all I know tomorrow is -7%.

The funny thing is, only yesterday in a reply to @Parko5 I concluded after the usual arguments and rationale that "... based on the last 10 years $PNV price action in July is usually subdued, I'm hoping it will be a nice quiet run into the result."

But one thing I am more confident of, is $PNV will continue to be a rollercoaster! The question today is, are we on the steep climp up to "Kingda Ka", or are we about to plunge down the "Falcon's Flight"? (Note: the latter is still under construction as at 13/11/23)

I think I may have caught the @Strawman jinx for market timing. Not complaining, but the lesson is don't ever, ever, ever, try to predict SP action. Unless you are an accomplished technical analyst, which I most certainly AM NOT.

At the end of the day, for the long term investor, it really is just noise. Just a bit louder today than usual. But still noise.

@Saiton I just watched your video. Wow! Thanks for sharing. It was fascinating.

Thanks for taking the time

Thanks!

So anything above $2.5X could see some pull back for a while.

We are due for some news....been a while (or it just feels like it).

Fascintated by your work @Saiton and would love to see the video. If you save it to Dropbox, OneDrive, or GoogleDrive and make the link shareable, you can post the link, I think.

While technicals are not my focus, I'm interested in them because they decode patterns in short term supply-demand and price action. And clearly, because many in the market use them, there is potentially a self-fulfilling prophecy. I have an open mind as to their short-term predictive power, albeit starting from a point of sceptisicm.

Absent new information, and any macro-effects, I think $PNV is likely to float around $1.80-$2.50 until we get the FY Trading Update and then the FY results.

Market is expecting them to deliver a small profit and free cashflow, and DW has confirmed this so - even though immaterial - it would be a credibility loss if they can't deliver that.

Consensus has revenue "only" growing at 30% in FY25, even though the market has clearly moved well beyond this. So, I think the next trading trend will be formed by the consensus coming out of the FY around the revenue momentum as well as the narrative and forward milestones on new products, which featured more prominently again at the last presentation.

Personally, absent a very significant loss of revenue momentum, I continue to be locked in to $PNV for the long term. But I do get a lot of entertainment value from the price action!

Well yes and no @Parko5 . One thing for sure is none of the Analysis I do gives any indication on timing. I just have to keep an eye and see how it plays out really. I managed to forward to @Strawman the Video I made today explaining how i work this out and my thoughts. He is going to try post it somewhere on the site. Not sure if he can get embedded right in the comments or a new straw etc. Im at the farm working tomorrow on machines so may not hear the phone, however text me a time if you want a chat and Ill call you back when im having a break.

Hey @mikebrisy, Im glad you find it of some interest. Im also glad you take with a grain of salt. I also do the same with the valuation members put in here as they can vary wildly also. For me, I find the fundamentals are more of a long term indicator not so much the short term (unless critical news is released on the day). Also fundamental will show up in the charts anyway as time moves on. What doesnt show up in the fundamentals is market sentiment (investor sentiment, not product or company sentiment). For me investor sentiment is very important for determining when and where I will take a position. I would hate to take a position in a company late in its uptrend only to have it drop a large downside retrace. An example of this was Kogan for me. I got into it close to its top during covid only for it to suffer from supply chain issues and subsequently overstocking / warehousing issue. I want to at least get in close to the bottom of a stocks cycle. Drone shield is my best example here. I enterd real low and did very well out of it. Yes I got out way too early, however Im happy and there will be retraces along the way to enter again. So never mind. My Analysis allows me to get in at a reasonable time to watch it increase hopefully, though also allows me to exit if its not playing out how I want it to, for a small profit. Am I a trader? Yes until such time that I see a long position for the longer term. Until then I trade it.

I have a rule I trade by. "Many non-correlated indicators, thoughts and fundamentals need to align for me to take the trade. The more that align, the stronger my conviction".

Oh and by the way, that goes wrong sometimes too. Hopefully your winners are big and your loosers are small. That way you dont blow up your acc. balance.

Hope this explains a little why I do the charts how I do.

Yes @Saiton I do see the value of charts to help on timing. One recent example would be $IEL, I’ve overpaid for my position there, even though, fundamentally I remain confident of a good return in the long term. What’s clear it that I could have had an even better return if I’d combined a technical and fundamental view. So I’m all up for learning. But, I’ll always be fundamentals first, then charts, I imagine.

Kogan!!!! You and me both!!! I keep it in my portfolio as a reminder! I have to look at it every single day!