Forum Topics HSN HSN Overview

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

Hansen's share price has tumbled n the last couple of weeks.

There has been an announcement re management changes. I didn't see any particular reason for concern in that news.

Am I missing something?

The price is down ~5% today. plumbing 52 week lows. Three year lows in fact.

541c7f94e8ab764ea3c79bb701a5a7562c9914.jpegHas anyone got thoughts/insights on the situation?

Ord Minnett had a buy under $6.80 (a couple of weeks ago)

Morningstar $4.63.

Thanks team

jcmleng
a month ago

The end-of week HSN chart. Despite the sharp drop to $4.00 mid week, the 4.21-4.42 support level seems to be holding out very nicely, with a noticeable voume uptick on the down day and the subsequently recovery vs the past few weeks.

If the 4.21-4.42 level continues to hold, then it would appear to be a decent floor for now. If it breaks, then 3.61-3.80 is the next congestion zone and my next top up level.

Discl: Held IRL and in SM

582c96b50b207064ffa13865aabf6a717fd8b9.png

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thunderhead
a month ago

Looks pretty dire technically, but value is starting to emerge fundamentally.

So depending on what your orientation is, this may not be the worst time to start a position, though I haven't done so yet. Hope the price action is not a harbinger of bad news to come.


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Arizona
a month ago

@thunderhead And while I was busy elsewhere, the price jumped 10%.

O well

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thunderhead
a month ago

Yeah, it has been a pretty quick rebound on reasonable volume too.

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edgescape
a month ago

@thunderhead @Arizona @Mujo

Don't really trust that rally to be honest.

Bit of a warning when someone quietly disappears without much background information.

Just an FYI: My Oracle holding got decimated when Ray Lane got silently dismissed by the great Larry J Ellison

Had to wait years before I got my money back. Pity I don't hold now as I would be well into profit.


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thunderhead
a month ago

Thanks @edgescape. For sure - sudden departures, particularly from tenured personnel, always make you uncomfortable (and from the looks of it, has the market spooked too).

These "old world", boring/stodgy techies have certainly got a strong tailwind from the AI hype - Oracle is one of the prime beneficiaries, alongside the likes of Dell. It's been a long wait, but everyone who kept the faith is reaping the rewards now.

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edgescape
a month ago

Thanks @thunderhead

I know Ray Lane was responsible for the massive turnaround at Oracle in the 90s but there was definitely a clash of philosophy between Ellison and Lane which was evident after the transition.

If you search there will be lots of articles that talk about their opposing philosophies which I won't post here. But it is well worth researching and only now I appreciate all the learning from this and applying that knowledge as part of Occam's Razor

As pointed out earlier by @Mujothe fact there is 1 month till departure is a bit more reassuring but we are still left in the dark.

Would be better if Hansen was going out and looking for a replacement CEO though. How can Andrew work so many roles?

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Arizona
a month ago

@edgescape Great to get your take on this. Its got me intrigued.

I'm certainly hesitant about it all just now.

The fact that they couldn't be super clear and transparent

You'd think Andrew Hansen would be across the best way to communicate with shareholders by now

So perhaps this is the best they can do given the circumstances.

Thanks to all here on SM for kicking this around a bit. The input is invaluable.

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Mujo
a month ago

Guess its concern the new CEO is going in under less than 12 months.

If he was terminated for cause he would go straight away not July 1st. Clearly wasn't 6 months' notice. So something else happened behind the scenes? or he did an atrocious job (seems unlikely since he has been with the company for years in other rolls)? lost some key contracts?

Market doesn't like uncertainty and the announcement indicated no reason as to why he was leaving.

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Arizona
a month ago

@Mujo Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this.

Now that you mention it, the announcement had a fair amount going on.

It really glosses over Taylors exit.

Focusing more on David Caster, Scott Weir, the return of Niv Fernando.

Then Hansen, resuming his role as CEO and Managing Director.

Its potentially some upbeat spin on Taylors stepping down.

Thanks again @Mujo

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jcmleng
a month ago

I did not think too much about the Taylor's exit as the rest of the org changes made sense.

This was also probably heavily influenced by my belated viewing of the 1H24 investor preso a few days prior to the Org Change announcement, where Andrew dominated the session as he talked about the powercloud acquisition, strategy etc. Taylor had only 2 slides of that preso, on R&D I think it was, after both Andrew and the CFO had done their bit, so the writing may already have been on the wall going back to Feb 2024 - his 2 slides appeared like an afterthought really.

It was always going to be hard to try to take over from someone like Andrew and the powercloud acquisition may have well energised him to continue to operate as he has, which made Taylor's position untenable really. 1 less serious $ overhead to pay for, which is probably a good thing for me!

Re: price, am not convinced it it Taylor-driven - didn't feel like he had much impact to begin with to justify the hit taken. The price fell below the strong 4.21-4.42 support area. I topped up at 4.35, and almost topped up again today at sub-4,00 but held off as the next support area is around 3.70-3.80 which could be where it drifts to ahead of EOFY.

For me, the business fundamentals are sound, the powercloud acquisition looks exciting, once this period of "Hansenisation" is done and dusted and HSN has a good track record of integrating acquired businesses. Am hence watching this drop as another opportunity to top up.

Discl: Held IRL and in SM

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NewyRookie
a month ago

@Arizona Intelligent Investor did a review of Hansen & Gentrack a couple of weeks back (17/5)


FWIW they had a buy price on Hansen of $4.50

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Arizona
a month ago

@jcmleng If the price drop was Taylor driven, there has been a bit of a lag. With hindsight, the SP was already sliding...who knows?

Perhaps I'm over thinking again.

Could just be a buying opportunity plain and simple.

You have inspired me to go and listen to the 1H24 investor pres.


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Arizona
a month ago

@NewyRookie I didnt see the review, but I heard the Stocktake podcast where the upshot was that HSN was better buying than GTK.

Pulled from Hotcopper:8970aab974f93d47af4a3f7d18f89a3edbb8f5.jpeg

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