Forum Topics KME KME Earnings update

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Added 2 months ago

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I should have a look at this. I sold my shares a few months ago.

Longpar5
2 months ago

I'm still holding, it just feels too cheap to sell at a market cap of less than $20m, even in June! I want to buy more and I think ultimately fortune will favour the patient brave.

This announcement suggests things are going ok, probably better than the market was pricing, however its still a downgrade compared to at half yr when they said full year neat would match last year, ie. Closer to $1.9m. Still if you annualise this half then you've got a company doing 20% revenue growth (with heavy investment) and a PE less than 10. This could get even better once they're through the investment cycle and D&A costs are coming down.....but will they ever get through or is this the new normal cost base?

What we can't see in this announcement and what's stopping me buying at the moment is how much they have spent on intangibles, is they investment cycle (corp centres and tutorfly) easing or getting deeper. The jury is still out on these investments (I'm probably being kind) and if they're having to double (triple?) down and invest at similar or higher rates then the market is rightly going to remain sceptical. I haven't yet done enough work to be sure averaging down is not me throwing good money after bad, in a company who might be doing the same.....

Id expect they are cash flow positive for the second half, with npat 1.1m, add back depreciation of about 2m and investment of maybe 2.5m. This would be important because at least it shows what they're doing can be sustainable, which the market was doubting after the HY. I think I'm back where I started, its too early to be sure, but there's always doubt in a good value play, its just aligning your exposure to that doubt.

Interested to hear if others are as on the fence as me....

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thunderhead
2 months ago

I'm about there with you. Shame really. I would sell if it weren't so cheap, but cheap can stay cheap or get even cheaper for very good reasons, and I'm not going to throw more capital second guessing the market here.

8

I can relate to your dilemma.

I hold it as well and not selling at this level, I think there are many ways board can create shareholder value here (changes in board brings little hope)

Heard that profit margin will increase, but want to see it before i believe.

Hope investment can stop and cost can be controlled in future.

Good news is that atleast its not going backwards in terms of revenue..

So yeah will wait for full year result and disect more.

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