Forum Topics WHC WHC Risks

Pinned straw:

Added 6 months ago

It is interesting to see the ASX coal stocks up this morning on the back of the Grosvenor mine fire. WHC up 4% and CRN up 8%. It is almost a re-run of the S32 Groote Island storm which shut down manganese mining on the island. Groote Island was producing around 12% of the worlds manganese supply. This prompted a rush (delayed) for the other ASX listed manganese producer, Jupiter.

Very roughly, the Grosvenor mine produces around 7mtpa of which around 5mtpa is coking coal and Australia is exporting around 200mtpa. So pretty small beer.

Where the market maybe getting too excited is the impact of this could be not just on Anglo American the owner of the Grosvenor mine. Queensland Dept of resources may crack down on safety at the other miners. That may adversely impact production at WHC (just bought the Queensland BHP met coal assets) and CRN whose principal Coking coal mine is the QLD Curragh mine, though has other mines on the east coast of USA.

If you were to be buying anything on this news it might be a coking coal operator with most of its operations outside of Queensland. Though who really knows.

RhinoInvestor
Added 6 months ago

WHC and CRN are both producers with a high mix of Metallurgical (not thermal coal).

I’m guessing the price action might be more related to the release of commodity data eg. https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-june-2024#:~:text=Australia's metallurgical coal export earnings,$208 a tonne by 2026. Following the end of the quarter (I think the slow down in coal prices probably hasn’t been quite as rapid as predicted as it seems like India is starting to take up some of the slack from China.

That said, it was certainly a large pop yesterday … I was contemplating adding to my IRL WHC position in the SMSF (pays a good dividend with a nice option market to sell covered calls and general consensus of some upside in the share price) however the Margin of Safety just went up in smoke.

DISC: Held IRL, not in SM

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WINGMAN
Added 6 months ago

@RhinoInvestor exactly what I do with Whitehaven in RL, rinsed and repeated each month this year. $8 call position expires in July so might all come to an end with share price shooting up. has been a great stock this year for rental / yield and cap gain.

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RhinoInvestor
Added 6 months ago

@WINGMAN its certainly ripped in the last week (up about 12% or 90c).

I got caught out a number of times last FY with this strategy when the market was rip-sawing because some bunch of nutters in energy rich jurisdictions were firing things at their neighbours (basically having to roll the covered call up in value and well out in duration such that I now have a bunch of covered calls not expiring for over a year with no real incremental income. I guess the upside is that if the market pulls back they will all expire out of the money and I will get to keep the premium at that point).

I'm interested in your strategy as to whether you have a clear pattern you prefer (eg. one month options or longer term, certain delta, target returns (eg. conservative returns with low probability of option being exercised vs selling options closer to the current price to maximise returns). I've tried a few different things and still haven't really found a reliable low risk (of CGT event) sweet spot.

I've found that the energy stocks offer a pretty good return for this strategy and I have a basket of dirty hydrocarbon producers (that I'm not super proud of) in my SMSF that I am utilising this strategy for. The 15% tax rate in the SMSF makes it much more attractive (as each covered call sold is treated as a short term CGT event). I'm also not super wedded to any of them as I don't expect these cyclical industries are really long term hold multi-baggers). Oil oscillated between high 60's and about 90 per barrel last FY and other forms of energy including coal also seemed to move quite a bit. I've also been running the same game on NHC.

Do you have any other favourites you've found for this strategy?

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