Forum Topics RUL RUL ASX Announcements

Pinned straw:

Last edited 4 months ago

SP down ~ 16% early in the session.


Announcement

Update on Software sales and expected Financial Year 2024 (FY2024) result.

2 July 2024

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (ASX: RUL) [RPM ®

, Company], is pleased to provide the following update on

Total Contracted Value (TCV) derived from software sales, and expected Gross Revenue, Operating EBITDA

and Profit Before Tax (PBT) for FY2024 (subject to audit).

The Company sold $50.4 million in software TCV in the second half of FY2024, bringing expected full year TCV

sold to $77.0 million (FY2023: $70.5 million) - $75.4 million in subscription licenses (FY2023: $65.8 million), $1.3

million in perpetual licenses (FY2023: $2.9 million) and new maintenance of $0.3 million (FY2023: $1.8 million).

The Company now has $161.0 million in pre-contracted, recurring, non-cancellable software revenue, which will

be recognised in future years, up $28.8 million (22%) from the same time last year (FY2023: $132.2 million).

The $75.4 million in TCV software subscription sales for FY2024, will deliver Annually Recurring Revenue

(ARR) of $9.2 million. As at 1 July 2024, the total value of ARR is $62.0 million, comprising $50.7 million from

subscriptions and $11.3 million from maintenance. As the Company’s software becomes more and more

mission critical, mining companies are asking for longer subscription terms to ensure certainty of supply. In the

second half of FY2024, the Company sold $18.4 million in software subscriptions with a committed term of

eight-years and $6.4 million with a committed term of ten-years.

The Company expects Gross Revenue for FY2024 to finish between $113.0 million and $114.0 million (FY2023:

$98.4 million), EBITDA (before management incentives) to be in the range of $18.7 million to $19.3 million

(FY2023: $15.0 million) and Profit before Tax (pre management incentives) to be in the range of $14.0 million to

$14.5 million (FY2023: $9.2 million). The lower than forecasted profitability is due to reduced perpetual license

sales and the timing of subscription licenses signed during the second half of FY2024.

Given the Company’s strategy and preference to sign subscription license sales (that deliver stable and

predictable recurring revenue reported over multiple financial years) over one off perpetual license sales (which

are fully reported as revenue in the financial year they are sold), the Company was comfortable seeing

perpetual license revenue reduce by $1.6 million year on year at the expense of an increase in subscription

license sales.

Reported subscription license revenue has risen strongly in FY2024 to $45.6 million (FY2023: $39.3 million),

however it is worth noting that the value of subscription license revenue reported within the financial year is

directly related to the timing of when that contract is signed during the financial year. The majority of software

subscription licenses sold during the second half of FY2024 were concluded in the last month of the year. This

timing profile has seen $1 million of expected subscription revenue move from being recognised in FY2024 to

future reporting years.

Given the growth in TCV, revenue and profitability in FY2024, the Company expects incentives (shared across

an increased number of employees) to be in the range of $3.5 million to $3.9 million for the FY2024 year

(FY2023: $3.0 million).

Subject to finalisation of the audit, RPM expects to release its FY2024 full year audited results in late August

2024.

Authorised by:

James O’Neill

Company Secretary

+61 7 3100 7200

companysecretary@rpmglobal.com

mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

Just catching up with some of the minor news on my holdings, and have to agree with most of the comments made here and quoted here about the $RUL update last week (so won't repeat).

What is interesting is the effort the business is putting into support the SP via the buy-back program. Remember, they have been pretty much buying $50,000 worth of shares each and every day - only avoiding days of limited liquidity and when proce spikes occurred.

With that in mind, here are the volumes since the FY24 results update:

2-July: $3.0 m (date of announcement and SP fall), equal to 17% of shares traded

3-July: $1.0m, 24% of shares traded

4-July: $0.15m, 5% of shares traded

5-July: $0.10m, 7% of shares traded

In 4 days that's $4.25m or about 85 days worth of buying under the "undisturbed" regime.

Clearly, if the company considers the reaction to be overdone, it makes perfect sense snapping up shares at a discount to recent highs. The point of highlighting this, is to show how significant the company's action has been in stabilising the share price.

Personally, I think the market was getting a little overheated on this one as it headed past $2.80 (that said, I didn't have the wit to sell), and the current level feels to be a bit more in line with my view on valuation. (My SM valuation of $2.04 is a bit out of date, and so I'm probably sitting more around $2.40-2.50 at the moment, and will update after the FY results.)

Disc: Held in RL and SM

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mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

And we've returned to business as usual - $50k repurchased yesterday.

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thunderhead
Added 4 months ago

I bought the dip, but nowhere near the lows of the day as my pending order from a couple of weeks ago got hit. Darn full time office work!

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lyndonator
Added 4 months ago

Aaaaand, the market hates it. Down 17% at the moment.


I wonder if it is purely because of the profit downgrade itself, or the fact that you have to read all the way through the announcement to find the bad news.


Doesn't seem to be a major to me - looks like the right things are trending in the right direction still


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Seymourbutts
Added 4 months ago

Agree with you here @lyndonator. Honestly bugs me how companies script ASX Announcements.

There's an entire paragraph on the key numbers (revenue and profit [before tax]) with the caveat of "before management incentives". You then need to get to the bottom of the page for them to give you the actual incentives - "to be in the range of $3.5 million to $3.9 million for the FY2024 year" against 2023's FY of $3 million.

Sure, key metrics trending in the right direction, but management incentives also growing at circa 20%.... must be nice.

Don't get me wrong, I am all for rewarding growth and key driver's of a company's financial performance - but there is a line right? Not saying we are at that line now, but does this continue to grow ~>20-25% YoY?

Keen to hear others' take.

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Mujo
Added 4 months ago

Well according to the announcement ARR is at $62M. After the sell off current Market cap of $522M that's P/S at 8.4x and yeh I think some more growth ahead.

Think looks okay here now, not cheap, but okay - was getting a bit toppy closer to $3.

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Slideup
Added 4 months ago

@lyndonator It is a pretty significant downgrade to the earnings guidance provided at the half year and you don't get a lot of wiggle room when your on a PE of 128.

They met revenue guidance ($113-114m) but missed EBITDA (18.7-19.3) by 10-15% and PBT ($14-14.5) by 20%. I

ts not clear to me if the $14-14.5m PBT is inclusive or exclusive of the management incentive figure of $3.5-3.9m. If its inclusive the miss is far more reasonable as suggested by @Seymourbutts, but its a bigger hit if its exclusive of it.

Agree though that broadly it is moving in the right direction the market just got ahead of itself. I think it is looking pretty interesting this morning. Meeting rev guidance but not EBITDA does imply that they costs have gone up somewhere along their chain though.

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Valueinvestor0909
Added 4 months ago

I agree this will set market expectations to more realistic level:

full thoughts published here: https://www.growthgauge.com.au/p/rpm-global-asx-rul-fy24-update

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Arizona
Added 4 months ago

@Valueinvestor0909 Nice work. Clear, concise, to the point and ...quick off the mark.

Thanks for your insights.

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lyndonator
Added 4 months ago

Thanks All - I always get a few more things to consider from the Strawman team.

However, now it is back in my buy zone I think I'll pick up a few more shares



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Slideup
Added 4 months ago

@Seymourbutts, the man problem I have with the incentives is that I have no idea what the hurdles are for management to achieve these bonuses. I am assuming it is linked to revenue growth, but i am not certain. I've looked through the annual report and their is no detail about them there as I think they are operating at a within company level rather than at thew board/senior exec level.

Including this year RUL will have paid out $10.5-$10.9m as incentive bonuses to staff over the last 3 years. So a pretty significant chunk of change for a growing company. It seems like the bonuses are a part of doing business for RUL so probably don't need to be itemised, just capture it in lower EBITDA as its really just paying staff more and reducing the operating margins of the business.

Overall I'm with you in seeing the benefits of incentivising an outcome so willing to let my confusion around it slide but I have no way to tell if it is actually increasing sales though or what their growth trajectory would look like if the incentives were lower.

This is probably the bigger concern for me is that management of RUL are a bit opaque in how they operate and its hard to know what their strategy is with regards to low investment back into product development/ R&D or the way they have continued the share buyback even when the SP was getting into overcooked levels.


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