@conrad yes, I just read the research note on the last day of my holiday, waiting to head off to the aiport to return to Australia as part of easing back into things. Once more - I am surprised by its conservatism. For example, Ecclock has sold 350,000 units in the last 12 months reported in Japan, during its 4th year of sales. By comparison, EH have only 310,000 scripts in year 4 for SOFDRA in the US in year 4 (2028). The research note draws out this comparison and highlights the conservatism of the analysis. It also includes the following table of sensitivities, highlighting the values included in the TP:

Clearly, there is downside risk if patients don't file repeat prescriptions (either due to cost and/or limited efficiacy) - it won't work for everyone. However, the penetration assumptions are very low, and so my eye is on the upside, which is reflected in my bullish valuation.

I may accumulate a little more if there is any SP weakness; however, with a RL position of 5.8% I will probably sit tight and wait to see the first sales reports. That's the next acid test. Given that $BOT have positioned themselves quite aggressively for early sales via telehealth, it will be interesting to hear what sales are in the bag by the time of the AGM in November - or any earlier update around the release of FY results. A positive early report would potentially put another rocket under the SP, as 33,000 scripts for year 1 is undemanding.

With two broker valuations now out there ($0.47 and $0.55), in absence of further news, I expect the current SP to be well supported. It will also be interesting to see what changes there are on the share register when the Annual Report comes out.

Disc: Held in RL and SM