Forum Topics SKS SKS Cognitive Bias

Pinned straw:

Added 5 months ago

SKS Technologies was up by around $1.20 at one point today. This could have been my very first real-life "spiffy-pop" (I hope I'm using that correctly - haha). I'll give myself a small pat on the back but not without first reflecting on a recurring theme with any of my winners, in terms of cognitive bias. It occurred to me today while driving home, that whenever I make an initial entry with the intention of buying more, and the stock shoots up by more than 5-10% from my buy price, I almost always fail to buy more on the way up. Definitely something to work on!

I'm sharing this with the group mainly for accountability. Putting this out there helps me stay focused on my growth areas. Sticking to the basics is key: if the thesis is on track and the valuation looks appealing, pull the trigger and buy more. Don’t just get sucked into buying more of stocks that have fallen just to average down.

Hopefully, sharing these experiences will be useful to others too.

Silky84
Added 4 months ago

A new $90mill contract

signalling FY25 revenue at >$200mill already- even if that doesnt grow from here it would be circa 60% revenue growth!

really hard to value this one- FY24 results will be very interesting. Growing like this it might well still be cheap!!

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reddogaustin
Added 5 months ago

Guilty as charged.

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Arizona
Added 5 months ago

@Colflan and @reddogaustin I too have had this problem, many times.

Psychology is so important and investing brings up psychological challenges constantly.

There is always a test around the corner.

Putting it out here on Strawman is a great way to get a little accountability.

Keep your wits about you.

Keep on truckin

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reddogaustin
Added 5 months ago

@Arizona I'm currently reading Thinking, fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman.

A great book about psychology of decision making. Our brains have a fast and slow method for decision making. The fast is suitable for many things, one of which is not investment decisions. The trick to learn, I've learned from the book, is to engage your slow thinking part of brain for investment related decisions... more deliberate and rational, less emotional, etc.

Sounds easy... but is it?

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mikebrisy
Added 5 months ago

@reddogaustin I thoroughly agree with this. Personally, it has been one of the toughest things I've had to work on over the years.

Slow thinking is all about the process of identifying what you want to invest in (and not), your thesis, valuation, entry point, and exit criteria. However, sometimes the market presents opportunities to enter or exit at a favourable price and here you have to engage both "fast" and "slow" thinking together.

With all the noise in the market on a day-to-day basis, its really easy to get sucked into a fast thinking, reactive mode as a default.

Kahneman's work is amazing, and a great resource for life and certainly for investing. A worthy Nobel Laureate.

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Strawman
Added 5 months ago

Guilty here too! Averaging up -- if that's what you want to call it -- is extremely difficult.

As for the fast/slow thinking issue, one thing I try and do is try and sleep on any trade decision. ie. Once i've decided to buy or sell something, I try and give it at least one day before I action the trade -- just to make sure i'm not being too reactive. Not always sensible if there is material and urgent news, but 99% of the time that's not the case. Really, I should make it a one week rule.

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Wini
Added 4 months ago

@Colflan I suspect we will get another spiffy pop today. A $90m data centre contract...wow!

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Arizona
Added 4 months ago

@reddogaustin I havent read the book. I have heard of it and the idea.

Is it easy you ask: I don't find it easy.

Part of the attraction of investing for me is the mind work that is needed.

I mean there ways of thinking that need to be mastered.

Emotions that need to be kept in check.

Learning happens one way or another and it can be related back to life in general.

One really has to learn about yourself.

I am grateful to the Strawman community assisting with the learning

Onward and upward

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Colflan
Added 4 months ago

Spot on @Wini! A positive outcome indeed.

BTW, I really enjoyed your chat with Andrew last week. Your comments around portfolio weighting/construction resonated with me, big thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts with the community, it's much appreciated.



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