Forum Topics CCA CCA Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Last edited 5 months ago

After a (very) rocky past, CCA is extremely well positioned in the payments processing/card issuing industry having won some key credit union customers in New Zealand which will double run-rate revenue over FY25. With the time, money and effort to develop the Vertexon payment processing/card issuing platform now largely a sunk cost, attention shifts to onboarding those customers and winning new card issuing programs.

As a genuine platform business I expect CCA can add this incremental revenue over FY25 with little additional opex. In a recent trading update management confirmed they will hit their target of monthly EBITDA/operating cashflow breakeven entering FY25. From this breakeven level I expect the business can scale over FY25 and achieve $2-3m USD profit before tax.

https://www.merewethercapital.com.au/blog/is-there-change-in-the-air-for-this-fintech/

Wini
Added 5 months ago

@Strawman Thanks so much for the chat yesterday. Unfortunately when you combine two blokes with a penchant for gasbagging with a few of their favourite topics it will be hard to keep it to a time limit!

I just chucked up some research on Change Financial (CCA) and while sharpening the pencil to forecast profitability and a valuation target I couldn't help but get brought back to what we were saying about the difficulty in measuring those things with small businesses who are at a stage in their life cycle where they aren't optimised for profitability. Given the inherent scalability of their payment platform business model, I have no doubt that CCA could let the bulk of the $8m incremental revenue to onboard over FY25 fall to profit if they wanted it to.

However, given how lean the business has been run over the last few years and the momentum in customer wins I fully expect management to modestly invest back into the business. Forecasting that can be tricky as it likely depends on the opportunities management sees in front of them. Ultimately I think we both agreed it's best to see management teams finding that balance. Demonstrate the profitability of your business model, and prudently re-invest some back into the business. It's a lesson from the post-2021 bull market that won't be forgotten for a while, and that is a very good thing!

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Strawman
Added 5 months ago

It was my pleasure @Wini. I always pick up a few nuggets of wisdom when we chat.

And thanks for pitching Change Financial -- it looks super interesting.

I just emailed the CEO to see if he'll come answer some questions for us.

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Wini
Added 4 months ago

You beaut! Tony is the ex-CFO as well, another heuristic we discussed yesterday! Maybe we did manage to touch on a few helpful bits...

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