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#Q4 FY24 and FY25 guidance
Added 5 months ago

Very impressive set of results this morning, and guiding 30%+ revenue and EBITDA positive in FY25. A few things that stood out to me:

  • The 30% revenue growth guidance is not a “finger in the air” type of number. It’s backed by the recent wins and the migration of new clients onto the PaaS platform. Any additional wins or increase in demand for professional services will likely to see this guidance revised higher.
  • They’ve essentially doubled the recurring revenue base between FY23 to FY25 on the back of the PaaS launch and the customer wins associated.
  • The company is now transitioning its key focus from product development to commercialisation, now that the Vertexon platform is now live and active.


While I hate myself for plugging my own site, InvestorPA provides a good summary of the announcement made today: https://investorpa.com/announcement/15910/

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Valuation of $0.110
Added 5 months ago

With $8m+ of New Zealand credit union customers onboarding through FY25, CCA should inflect quite strongly into statutory profitability. I am forecasting $3-4m PBT, though admittedly how smoothly customers onboard and card activations ramp up, plus the potential for higher than expected investment in operating expenses means it is a moving target.

Nonetheless, taking the midpoint $3.5m and applying a 20x multiple supported by further growth in FY26 gives a valuation of roughly 11c.

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#Bull Case
Last edited 5 months ago

After a (very) rocky past, CCA is extremely well positioned in the payments processing/card issuing industry having won some key credit union customers in New Zealand which will double run-rate revenue over FY25. With the time, money and effort to develop the Vertexon payment processing/card issuing platform now largely a sunk cost, attention shifts to onboarding those customers and winning new card issuing programs.

As a genuine platform business I expect CCA can add this incremental revenue over FY25 with little additional opex. In a recent trading update management confirmed they will hit their target of monthly EBITDA/operating cashflow breakeven entering FY25. From this breakeven level I expect the business can scale over FY25 and achieve $2-3m USD profit before tax.

https://www.merewethercapital.com.au/blog/is-there-change-in-the-air-for-this-fintech/

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