Top member reports
Straws
Sort by:
Recent
Content is delayed by one month. Upgrade your membership to unlock all content. Click for membership options.
#Thesis
Last edited a week ago

CCA has long promised growth and profitability. Well, that promise is finally coming true, yet the market hasn't noticed.

Transactional revenue for the payments platform went from 1.3m in FY24 to 6.3m (USD) in FY25. This is platform revenue and was driven by an increase in active cards in New Zealand. They clip the ticket on these card transactions with a flat fee per transaction as well as the interchange fee. By cards, that's physical and digital cards (higher fee).

My thesis is that over the long term this platform transactional revenue will continue to grow and margins will improve.

The business is not yet high-margin - gross margins are around 27% - and card issuing is a competitive, mature market. However, if CCA retains clients on its platform and scales, margins could rise significantly (the company targets 50% gross margin).

Development for their core products is largely complete, meaning ongoing development costs should remain relatively stable. Revenue quality is solid: 76% of FY25 revenue came from recurring platform-as-a-service (Vertexon) and support/maintenance services. The remainder came from Paysim, a payment testing product.

One negative is the poor working capital setup. In September 2024, on-boarding several new customers required a ~$1 m capital raise to bridge the 6-8 week gap between payments and receipts. They now have a higher revenue base, and more reoccurring revenue, so this timing effect should be reduced in future.

Another negative is their small size, the revenue lumpiness and that any customer loss will be felt. Perhaps they will continue to remain sub-scale and never fulfill the promise.

As written up well by @Wini in July 2024 there's the potential for operating leverage. While FY25 NPAT was still negative, they had positive operating cashflow and positive EBITDA for the first time. The operating leverage is starting to show through.

In late 2024, the company decided to exit the U.S. market and focus on Australia. Management is now concentrating on two core products, enhancing them using the existing development infrastructure rather than launching new products. This is a sensible, mature decision, though the market may penalize the company for lacking long-term growth ambitions. I like a tightly run, simpler business focusing on a much easier (even if smaller) market.

Recently Q1 FY26 results showed quarterly growth of 22% in active cards on the platform and record quarterly revenue of A$7.1m (partly from one-off hit of new license sales). The FY26 guidance of A$25.4-27.7m, Underlying EBITDA A$3.8-5.4m and cash flow positivity is eminently achievable considering these Q1 results, contract liabilities already on balance sheet and cost out from the US pivot. This is without significant scale and shows the quality of the business.

Management has been very transparent and detailed in their recent communications, so much so that I find myself questioning why this opportunity exists and whether I might be missing something.

With a market cap of ~50m (similar to July 2024) the market has not rewarded the sensible strategic decision making of management and it's execution. I think it is decent value, taking the upper end of FY26 guidance, I've got it on less than 2x revenue and EV/EBITDA of 9x. 

The other aspect of why this opportunity exists may be the long road it has been for investors with Change Financial. The market cap has not grown much over the years, it hasn't delivered on the promise. Well, I think there's some evidence that has changed and I'm a recent owner

#Risks
Added a week ago

Growth & Market Concentration

  • Geographic Concentration: The majority of revenue (55% in FY25) currently comes from Oceania (Australia and New Zealand). While there are sales reps in Latin America and the Philippines for Paysim, the primary growth opportunity remains focused on Australia.


  • Lack of Scale/Client Dependency: Given the company's current size, the loss of just one or two major clients would be material to the business operations and financial results.


Competition & Technological Change

  • Established Competitors: Faces competition from larger entities, such as Cuscal (CCL), and others.
  • Note: The company (CCA) focuses on small- to medium-sized clients with a full-featured product, which may allow them to gain market share from a small base.


  •  Substitute Products/New Technology: There is an ongoing risk of competition arising from substitute products or new technology entering the market.
  • Note: A recent, impressive win with Sharesies (a large, tech-focused NZ broker) suggests the company's product is competitive.


Operational & Financial Stability

  • Operational Risks: Includes the ongoing challenges of managing fraud, compliance, and cybersecurity.
  • Financial & Capital Risks: History of financial strain, notably the working capital issue that necessitated the September 2024 capital raise.


Investor Perception & History

  • Long-Term Investor Skepticism: The opportunity to invest may partly exist because of the company's long and disappointing history for investors, as the market capitalization has not grown significantly over the years and previous promises were not fully delivered.


Regulatory Environment

  • Regulatory Risk: While always present, significant regulatory changes (e.g., in interchange fees) are considered unlikely in the immediate future due to recent decisions in Australia and New Zealand.
#Exiting loss making US busines
stale
Added 12 months ago

Immaterial impact on revenue.

Annualised cost saving of $1.6 Million USD. Excluding the US business, Change Financial had a + EBITDA in FY2024.

In update, re-affirmed 30%+ growth in revenue, and + EBITDA result in FY25.

Reported sales momentum continues with new customers secured - Vertexon PaaS client in NZ, a new PaySim client in SE Asia and new projects with existing clients


DISC - HELD

#Insider Buying
stale
Added 12 months ago

Director, Geoffrey Sam acquired $250 k of shares off-market at a premium (7.5 cents per share) on November 11.

#Q4 FY24 and FY25 guidance
stale
Added one year ago

Very impressive set of results this morning, and guiding 30%+ revenue and EBITDA positive in FY25. A few things that stood out to me:

  • The 30% revenue growth guidance is not a “finger in the air” type of number. It’s backed by the recent wins and the migration of new clients onto the PaaS platform. Any additional wins or increase in demand for professional services will likely to see this guidance revised higher.
  • They’ve essentially doubled the recurring revenue base between FY23 to FY25 on the back of the PaaS launch and the customer wins associated.
  • The company is now transitioning its key focus from product development to commercialisation, now that the Vertexon platform is now live and active.


While I hate myself for plugging my own site, InvestorPA provides a good summary of the announcement made today: https://investorpa.com/announcement/15910/

#Bull Case
stale
Last edited one year ago

After a (very) rocky past, CCA is extremely well positioned in the payments processing/card issuing industry having won some key credit union customers in New Zealand which will double run-rate revenue over FY25. With the time, money and effort to develop the Vertexon payment processing/card issuing platform now largely a sunk cost, attention shifts to onboarding those customers and winning new card issuing programs.

As a genuine platform business I expect CCA can add this incremental revenue over FY25 with little additional opex. In a recent trading update management confirmed they will hit their target of monthly EBITDA/operating cashflow breakeven entering FY25. From this breakeven level I expect the business can scale over FY25 and achieve $2-3m USD profit before tax.

https://www.merewethercapital.com.au/blog/is-there-change-in-the-air-for-this-fintech/