Forum Topics RMD RMD Industry/competitors

Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

Comprehensive overview starting at page 52 of the latest Selector quarterly - Selector Fund (website-files.com) - of GLP-1s (as already covered here extensively).

Chagsy
Added 4 months ago

thanks @Mujo

Comparisons are seductive because they give us a narrative we are familiar with that can seemingly predict the future. So I say this with a significant degree of scepticism: but I am beginning to think of CPAP as akin to spectacles.

They've been around for ages (c. 1290, apparently!) are clunky and inconvenient and there have been several new technological advances that seemingly have spelt the demise of an inferior technology: contact lenses and refractive surgery. Yet here we are still seeing a rise in worldwide sales

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For both markets; the global size of the pie is getting bigger every year, more people can afford it, and seemingly superior options have draw back or other issues that for whatever reason people choose not to accept (size of slice of pie doesn't seem to be getting much smaller)

As I said, its a lazy thought process, but might hold true - it'll be fun to see how things turn out.


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mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

@Chagsy - not lazy at all - brilliant analogy.

Laser surgery is GLP-1 ... can't see it!

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Arizona
Added 4 months ago

@Chagsy I like the analogy.

That makes sense to me.

There are times through history when a technology cuts a swath through the old guard and major disruption takes place.

Kodak V digital technology comes to mind.

This doesn't feel like a "Kodak moment" for Resmed to me.

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Karmast
Added 4 months ago

@Chagsy yes I like it too and makes intuitive sense. The flip side is the spectacles market would likely have been even bigger if contacts and laser surgery didn't come along though. So for me, this is what I need to form a view on over time... How much has the really large, currently unaddressed market for CPAP been reduced by. Then I trim my growth expectations for RMD accordingly and value it on that basis.

Hard to know for sure yet but seems likely at least some of the future growth potential has been shaved off at this point in time.

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