https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/ARU/02830993.pdf
Sorry for the slow turnaround. Been swearing my head off. And trying to get answers from the CEO.
So this is NOT the big $800m cap raise.
This is the working cap raise for $27-30m at $0.16. SPP capped at $30k. $20m already raised by instiutions/funds. $7-10m from retail and the SPP.
So apparently....this is to give ARU runway 'past the final equity raise so that investors are not worried about ARU's funding when in negoitations'. So in other words....this gives us leveridge. But my question is....at what cost! Fark me. I'm so angry. Why do a SPP. Can't Aunty Gina just put in the full $30m? Or one of her mates? Why let the shorters get any of this.
So i am trying to get this all clear in my head. So i'm just going to write down a bunch of points:
- Debt - They announced all the dept was conditonally approved yesterday. With any debt, you need a date you will start to draw down funds. If we have to delay that date, ARU would have to pay a holding cost. So ARU would have known this SPP was being dropped today...and timelines for the final equity. So i presume the debt draw down date has factored this in (guessing around mid 2026). The conditions of the debt would be Off take agreements (with certain paramters like price, quantity and timing) and equity being secured. These would all be conditons precedent. So that means that nothing material in the debt documents gets changed. Otherwise they all have to get reapproved by their credit committees.
- Off Take - The off take agreements have not been finalised. The CEO said yesterday that ARU was going to set a precedent. Maybe with all the US/Euro/UK tarrifs now in place, this has given ARU leveridge to get better terms? The longer this process takes...the more the world is waking up to the NdPr supply deficit for ex-china supply. So i'm not really worried about this part of the deal.
- Final Equity Raise - This is what is confusing me. We need $800 million.
- $150 million - Aunty Gina will take her full about so she is just under 20%
- $100 million - Posco - these guys want to be world leaders in ex-china magnets and have control of the the whole supply chain. Small investment for them.
- $100 million - Aussie super (or some other super fund).
- $200 million - Some energy transition funds (say $100m each)
- $150 million - Couple of other billionare friends of Aunty Gina
- $100 million - retail?
- So who in the above would be holding out? I don't have any real insights here....
- I was thinking about the presentation that ARU gave yesterday. They kept talking about Phase 2 with 150% more NdPr likely for modest capital outlay. Maybe this is positioning by one of the big players like Posco....so secure this.
- To put together a Cap Raise like the one today...would take a few weeks at a minimium. More likley 2 months. Especially when fully underwritten. So why announce the Debt yesterday?
Conclusion:
- Nothing has changed with the rare earth thesis. World is only just waking up to the ex-china supply deficit (btw - ARU modelling of the supply deficit is ball park with my modelling. Their modelling is natually a little more conservative)
- There is obviously some game being played by an equity participant. This is ARU perhaps saying, "hey....we won't be bullied around....we will raise more money and drag this out if need be...we want the right equity player involved".
- WIll i particpate in the SPP....i'll see how the SP plays out. Maybe the shorters will push lower.
- you know what is even rarer than rare earths.....a fully financed rare earth mine. Like trying to mine for hens teeth. But once we have it (FID)....wow. Life will be good.
Thats it for now. Time to open a cheap bottle of wine.......
PS....as for my 'perfect timing for my trade yesterday'.....ha! totally jinxed myself.