Forum Topics ARU ARU FFS - 'working capital' Cap Ra

Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/ARU/02830993.pdf


Sorry for the slow turnaround. Been swearing my head off. And trying to get answers from the CEO.


So this is NOT the big $800m cap raise.

This is the working cap raise for $27-30m at $0.16. SPP capped at $30k. $20m already raised by instiutions/funds. $7-10m from retail and the SPP.

So apparently....this is to give ARU runway 'past the final equity raise so that investors are not worried about ARU's funding when in negoitations'. So in other words....this gives us leveridge. But my question is....at what cost! Fark me. I'm so angry. Why do a SPP. Can't Aunty Gina just put in the full $30m? Or one of her mates? Why let the shorters get any of this.

So i am trying to get this all clear in my head. So i'm just going to write down a bunch of points:

  • Debt - They announced all the dept was conditonally approved yesterday. With any debt, you need a date you will start to draw down funds. If we have to delay that date, ARU would have to pay a holding cost. So ARU would have known this SPP was being dropped today...and timelines for the final equity. So i presume the debt draw down date has factored this in (guessing around mid 2026). The conditions of the debt would be Off take agreements (with certain paramters like price, quantity and timing) and equity being secured. These would all be conditons precedent. So that means that nothing material in the debt documents gets changed. Otherwise they all have to get reapproved by their credit committees.
  • Off Take - The off take agreements have not been finalised. The CEO said yesterday that ARU was going to set a precedent. Maybe with all the US/Euro/UK tarrifs now in place, this has given ARU leveridge to get better terms? The longer this process takes...the more the world is waking up to the NdPr supply deficit for ex-china supply. So i'm not really worried about this part of the deal.
  • Final Equity Raise - This is what is confusing me. We need $800 million.
  • $150 million - Aunty Gina will take her full about so she is just under 20%
  • $100 million - Posco - these guys want to be world leaders in ex-china magnets and have control of the the whole supply chain. Small investment for them.
  • $100 million - Aussie super (or some other super fund).
  • $200 million - Some energy transition funds (say $100m each)
  • $150 million - Couple of other billionare friends of Aunty Gina
  • $100 million - retail?
  • So who in the above would be holding out? I don't have any real insights here....
  • I was thinking about the presentation that ARU gave yesterday. They kept talking about Phase 2 with 150% more NdPr likely for modest capital outlay. Maybe this is positioning by one of the big players like Posco....so secure this.
  • To put together a Cap Raise like the one today...would take a few weeks at a minimium. More likley 2 months. Especially when fully underwritten. So why announce the Debt yesterday?


Conclusion:

  • Nothing has changed with the rare earth thesis. World is only just waking up to the ex-china supply deficit (btw - ARU modelling of the supply deficit is ball park with my modelling. Their modelling is natually a little more conservative)
  • There is obviously some game being played by an equity participant. This is ARU perhaps saying, "hey....we won't be bullied around....we will raise more money and drag this out if need be...we want the right equity player involved".
  • WIll i particpate in the SPP....i'll see how the SP plays out. Maybe the shorters will push lower.
  • you know what is even rarer than rare earths.....a fully financed rare earth mine. Like trying to mine for hens teeth. But once we have it (FID)....wow. Life will be good.


Thats it for now. Time to open a cheap bottle of wine.......

PS....as for my 'perfect timing for my trade yesterday'.....ha! totally jinxed myself.



Bear77
Added 4 months ago

Yeah, I can see why you'd be frustrated there @Parko5 , raising this amount at 16 cps - being a 15.8% discount to where they closed yesterday and the day before (19 cps) - is a hefty discount, and they haven't yet made the FID for Nolans - that is mentioned in their announcement at the fourth dot point on page 1:  "The Capital Raising is expected to support advancement of the Company’s funding initiatives and provides a sufficient cash runway through to mid-2025 to allow the Company to focus on finalising its strategic equity funding and offtake initiatives required for FID."

Sounds like patience will be required here, and they might go lower before they go higher. Gina will be playing the long game as she usually does. She won't care too much what the SP does in the short term. It would take something out of left field, IMO, for the FID to not be a "Yes" when it is finally decided, or substantially lower RE prices (particularly for the basket of rare earths at Nolans) as there's some serious smart money already in this one, so I think it's going to get developed, but the timeframe could test ordinary retail shareholders' patience.

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Bear77
Added 4 months ago

In today's (free) "Director's Special" newsletter from "Money of Mine":

  • Arafura launched a fully underwritten two-tranche $20m placement and $7m SPP to fund development of its Nolans rare earth project (ARU)


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"A gargantuan task getting the debt firmed-up but the equity ain’t gonna be easy"

---

A goldie I hold in my super (and here on SM) is also raising capital:

  • Bellevue raising up to $175m at $1.55 via an underwritten Insto placement ($150m) and a non-underwritten SPP ($25m) to partially repay debt and accelerate growth (BGL).
  • The offer price of A$1.55 represents a 15.3% discount to the last traded price of A$1.83 on 24 July 2024 (yesterday) and a 14.5% discount to the 5 day volume weighted average price (VWAP) of A$1.81.
  • It seems that BGL waited until the market was confident that they didn't need to do a CR and the share price rerated higher and then they did one. Unfortunately Bellevue's management has form for that sort of behaviour which is good (they raise at higher prices, despite the big discount in the offer price) and bad (management are sneaky - they say they don't NEED to raise - "we are fully funded through to... " ...and then they raise anyway).

Different type of frustration, but at least Bellevue do have revenue, so they are producers, not developers, so there's that. And it's gold, not rare earths, so there's that...

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