To start a standard bull base for me - given revenue for 2024 of $104m and assuming a 25% CAGR to 2029

=> 2029 Revenue: $316m

Assuming GP% drops to 75% (due to the majority of sales in developing countries), $77m opex this year and a 10% CAGR in opex going forward to $124m

=> 2029 EBT: 114

Assuming 360m shares (modest buy back over time)

=> 2029 SP: $5.18

discounting at 10%

=> 2024 Share Price: $3.20

What if I wanted to get hyper-bullish? A different approach:

According to the Macquarie Presentation, they will have capacity to produce 680k units by 2027

Lets assume they are selling at 80% of that capacity in 2029: 544k units

In 2023 they produced 38k at a total cost of $12m (Revenue - GP; 65 - 53)

=> Cost per "unit": 315k

Lets assume costs remain the same (productivity improvements offset inflation in costs)

=> 2029 COGS: $167m

Assuming the same 75% GP margin

=> 2029 Revenue: $666m (ooh, spooky, maybe DW is Satan not Santa)

Let's assume it is gonna take a big sales team to get there so Opex increases at 30% CAGR from 2023 levels to $280m

=> 2029 EBT $220

with 660m Shares

=> 2029 SP: $10

=> 2024 SP: $6.20 (10% Discount)

For now, for now I'll stick with the first approach, but nice to have a possible upper limit if things start to get crazy.