@Strawman after my embarassing false start this morning (note to self: don't do analysis on the fly when running off to do something else and then post it!), I've had another look at the numbers, and get a similar picture to what you've set out - albeit, I've come at it somewhat differently.

In the picture below, which yields a more sensible value of $0.45/share, I have the following assumptions:

• Revenue growth of: 50%, 35% and 30% in FY25, FY26 and FY27 respectively to hit the midpoint of the $75m - $85m cumulative sales range
• %GM sustained at 60%
• Expense growth of 20% p.a. (significantly above recent history - to cover sales and marketing expansion in Europe and North America)
• Minimal capex, so some D&A growth allowed for in the expense line
• Tax rate 25%
• Constant interest charge (no change in debt)
• SOI dilution of 2% pa.

In this case, using today's SP of $0.54, the P/E at end FY27 is 36, while the eps growth rate in FY27 would be about 80%. So, in practice, were that achieved, the shares would probably be rated significantly higher.

However, this is not the primary point of my post. My main point is to say that I believe Blair has put out targets that he believes can be significantly beaten. Of course, thats better than the other way around!

Why do I say this? Several points.

• Revenue growth over the last two years has been 76% (2023) and 80% (2024).
• Blair said (either on the Strawman interview or on the Shares In Value Interview, I can't recall which) that this level of growth can be sustained for the next couple of years. So, 50% in FY25 is a significant step down.
• Blair's assessed his Aussie "TAM" as 8 x $13m or c. $100m. IF he gets one-third of this over the next 3 years, then Aussie sales in FY27 would be c. $33m, but total FY27 sales to meet target midpoint only requires group sales of just over $34m. But they've now put "8-9" people in UK/Europe, and with two years experience, I'd expect UKI sales to start ramping up significantly. What this means is that to hit forecast, they don't need anything from Canada/North America - which is consistent with the slow build strategy Blair articulated.
• Just playing "tunes" on this: if they penetrated 25% of their "TAM" in Australia, then they'd need $8-9m sales from UKI/EU. Given that they built from $2m to $13 in ANZ in 3 years, then if the product-market fit works in Europe, and with $0.8m sales in UKI, then they are probably now primed for significant growth in UKI/Europe.
• In the interview, when asked what proportion of sales Blair expects to see come from international sales in the next two eyars, his answer was "around 10%" - midway between the scenarios I've set out in the previous two bullet points.

So, in conclusion, I think the $75m-$85m cumulative sales target is conservative, and with this conservatism comes some optionality for Blair to allocate resources to markets depending on his longer term goals, and how each market is progressing.

The other observation I'd make, is that with Blair's "conservative" strategy of continuing to expand "slowly" (his words), this reduces the likelihood of a capital raising. (Whereas, if he was going all guns blazing per my earlier erroneous analysis, he'd absolutely have to increase the capital base in order to expand on all fronts in 2025.)

So, while I have strictly speaking, potentially overpaid for my $BIO starter pack (RL cost base $0.603), I'm not too fussed. My forward plan is as follows:

• Carefully consider the FY24 results (including cost base, which looks good based on the 4C)
• Listent to the full 2027 Strategy Presentation
• Test 1H FY25 Revenue growth against the framework above
• Continue my deep dive into understanding the science behind the products, to form a better view on differentiation

If (and only if) the above show "green", I'll opportunistically be accumulating this one.

Disc: Held in RL and SM