Pinned valuation:
Assume $6m in EBT for 2024 off of $96m in Revenue.
Let revenue CAGR at 10% while Opex only grows 5% a year with gross margins at 25%
=>
2029 Revenue: $154m
2029 Opex: $23m
2029 EBT: $16m
Assuming a P/EBT of 15 and 390 million shares
=> 2029 share price: $0.60
Discount at 10%
=> 2024 SP: $0.37
Given there recent growth rate I'd suggest this is pretty conservative. I'm really expecting a greater growth in revenue than this, especially if there is any success with the PFAS water treatment, however I'd also expect the operating cost to be grow faster in that case too. I consider this a reasonable base case - I'll be keen to see how far out I am in the future, and will maybe get more bullish as we go.
I hadn't realised I had already posted a valuation - was just rerunning the numbers and it came out lower - mainly because of the increase in share count. Still a solid Buy in my mind.
DISC: Held in SM and IRL