Forum Topics AVA AVA Q4 FY24 Trading Update

Pinned straw:

Added 2 years ago

tl;dr -- It was a good final quarter, but H2 revenue was at the very bottom of guidance issued in April and FY revenue was up only 5.6% for the full year. EBITDA was positive (but unquantified) in H2, compared with -$900k in H1. Positioned well for accelerating growth -- according to the company -- but no guidance given at this stage.

Here's the key figures:

  • Q4 sales order intake of $9m, second highest on record (pro forma), 50% above preceding quarter and 17% above previous 4th quarter
  • The company brought in $35.3m in sales across the full year -- 14% up on last year
  • The sales order backlog of $8.5m compares with $3.5m a year ago.
  • FY24 revenue of $30.2m compared to $28.6m in FY23, representing growth of 5.6%
  • At the end of Q3 in April, they said they were expecting $16-20m in revenue for the second half. Given they did $14.2m in H1 revenue, the result was at the very bottom of the range
  • Telstra supply agreement disrupted a bit by restructuring within Telstra


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My view: good to see a decent lift in sales orders and the partnerships with some big clients seem to be progressing well. Nice to see some cross-sell wins, and extensions to previous contracts. But material growth remains elusive.. Still, at 1x revenue (pre market open) it's not exactly priced for much growth. With the *potential* for good operating leverage, and some major trials in the pipeline, FY25 could be the year we finally see some good earnings growth.

If not, I'll concede defeat and move on.

fcmaster26
Added 2 years ago

The most concerning part to me is AVA has been developing applications with Telstra.

During Mal’s first interview with Strawman, he said “We don’t do bespoke. We sell what we make.”

This Telstra thing now start to sound like another bespoke-AuraIQish-successful trials-never got meaningful revenue kind of deal to me.

Not being skeptical here, I’m just a bit nervous.

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Strawman
Added 2 years ago

Good point @fcmaster26, i'd forgotten about that. Telstra may be a big enough client to justify the change in stance? Or perhaps it's an opportunity to develop solutions that have broader applicability (ie. other telcos)?

Or, it may just be that beggars cant be choosers!

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GazD
Added 2 years ago

thanks for this analysis @Strawman and @fcmaster26.

Im definitely conflicted here having recently bought back into this business but the highlight for me is the massively increased sales backlog. 8.5 mil compared with 3.5 a year ago as referenced by the man of straw above bodes well for the coming FY but also fits very nicely with the stated approach by Mal in the Strawman meetings… I’m happy to hold and watch

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Strawman
Added 2 years ago

Sorry for another tardy reply.. have been dragged away from the computer quite a bit this week.

I like that approach @fcmaster26. It definitely seems achievable when you frame it like that. Let's see!

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