Forum Topics DUR DUR DUR valuation

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mikebrisy
Added 5 months ago

@Rick … another great discovery by mining the StrawBrainsTrust.

At one level, very pleased (smug?) that I timed my entry well.

At another level, looking forward to seeing the state of the order book at the FY (and thus is it forever destined to be.)

Held RL and SM

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Rick
Added 5 months ago

@mikebrisy Its interesting how market sentiment can affect your own psychology. The last shares I added were at $0.99, and I felt a bit silly adding these as the share price just kept sliding.

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Wini
Added 5 months ago

@Rick 100% agree on the market sentiment (fancy way of saying which way the share price is going) affecting investor psychology. Often "fundamental research" is just the work we do to explain what the share price is doing!

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Rick
Added 5 months ago

@Wini I’m not sure “fundamental research” helps to explain what the share price is doing? I think we use the share price to validate our valuation process at times, but as Howard Marks often says, the outcome (resultant share price) does not necessarily mean our valuation process was right or wrong…at least in the short term. Sometimes the share price goes to the moon and we think we’re a genius. Other time the share price will tank and we doubt our process. I think process is key, but luck, or lack of it, can confuse things for an uncomfortable period of time.

Coincidently I’ve just ordered “The Psychology of Money” by Morgan Housel. I’ll put up a review under “Good Books” (if it makes the grade) after I’ve finished reading.

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Karmast
Added 5 months ago

Thanks @Rick and I suspect you might be conservative with your growth forecasts. The business has grown earnings at over 30% p.a. for more than a decade. They still had $1 billion out to tender at the half, so as long as a decent amount converts to orders the order book will probably be fine too.

Today they announced results will be published on August 28th and there were no other announcements attached. That says to me that they aren't confessing results will be much different to guidance at the half, so I'm expecting sales growth of about 20% and EPS growth of about 25% YOY.

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Karmast
Added 5 months ago

Great book @Rick and my guess is it will make your list!

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