Forum Topics AVA AVA Quarterly Review

Pinned straw:

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Bear77
Added 9 months ago

@Bradbury - given that your valuation hasn't changed for AVA for some time - despite their lack of progress towards profitable growth, and your valuation is higher than the highest point their SP has been for over a year, do you not think that lack of progress and more work now being required (than previously) to meet their growth forecasts demands a higher weighting to a Bear case rather than remaining Neutral? I would have thought that the longer it takes, the less faith we should maintain that management can actually achieve what they've said they would?, or should?, but of course I say that as someone who previously held AVA and sold out, having lost faith in management, so there is bias there, as there always is, in my case some confirmation bias I suppose.

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Bradbury
Added 9 months ago

@Bear77 Definitely. I just wasn’t ready to update it on this post. I have probably over thought the valuation process a bit and could have just adjusted my weightings.

I agree with your general sentiment. They are running well behind my forecast growth in all scenarios and as you said have been failing to execute.

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